380
FXUS64 KOHX 050141
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
741 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The first round of showers didn`t materialize this evening with
most of the activity staying up in Kentucky. The cold front itself
is still up in central Illinois to central Missouri but diving
south quickly. The cold front should clear our area around
day break. A couple sprinkles or light shower cannot be completely
ruled out along the plateau after midnight but chances are pretty
low. I trimmed back the previous PoPs to reflect this. Tomorrow
is looking pretty chilly with highs in the 30s and gusty northerly
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Much more mild and windy today versus yesterday with current
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs are expected to
reach around 50 on the Plateau and low to mid 50s elsewhere this
afternoon thanks to strong WAA occurring ahead of a potent cold
front that will sweep through the area tonight. Southwest winds
have been gusting up to 35 mph at times, and a few gusts to near
40 mph are possible this afternoon.

Later today, isolated light rain is expected to break out by
23-00Z across our eastern and southern counties well out ahead of
the approaching front, with this activity spreading eastward out
of the area during the evening. Another round of isolated light
rain is possible on and near the Plateau overnight as the cold
front pushes across. For both rounds, models show little if any
QPF except maybe a hundredth or two on the Plateau, so most of us
will stay dry. The coldest air of the season so far will arrive
behind the front, with highs on Thursday only reaching the 30s to
around 40, and lows in the 10s areawide on Thursday night into
Friday morning. A few locations could even drop into the upper
single digits given the expected good radiational cooling
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

After one more cold day/night on Friday into Friday night with
highs in the 30s and lows in the mid 10s to low 20s, a warmup will
begin over the weekend as the upper level pattern shifts from
northwesterly to southwesterly winds over the Tennessee Valley out
ahead of a weakening cutoff low located over the Desert
Southwest. Highs will subsequently warm back into the 40s on
Saturday, 50s on Sunday and 50s/60s on Monday and Tuesday. Return
flow off the Gulf of Mexico is also anticipated to commence in
earnest on Sunday, with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 spreading
into the midstate Sunday night into Monday. As the upper low
opens up into a trough and shifts eastward into the Plains,
widespread rain is forecast to develop across Texas and spread
northeastward into Middle Tennessee by Sunday evening. Rain could
be moderate to heavy at times as it continues Sunday night into
Monday morning before tapering off by Monday afternoon.
Additional light rain is likely Monday night into Tuesday ahead
of and along another cold front as it moves through the region.
Latest WPC and model QPF show around 1 to possibly 2 inches of
rain could fall from Sunday to Tuesday throughout the midstate,
which would be great news for our drought conditions. Best of
all, no severe storms or any thunderstorms at all are
anticipated.

Colder air returns behind the cold front for midweek with lows
back into the 20s and highs in the 40s. 12Z operational GFS shows
a powerful secondary system developing along the front midweek as
a sharp shortwave trough races through the Gulf Coast states,
giving us another round of heavy rain or possibly even the s word
Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, GFS ensemble members
show little support for this scenario and latest ECMWF is dry, so
only slight chance pops are warranted at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The main focus of the current taf package will be winds. Surface
winds are steady around 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots out
of the southwest. Meanwhile, the latest upper air sounding shows
winds of 55 to 60 knots at 2kft, so included LLWS at BNA, MQY,
SRB, and CSV for the next few hours. Models show that elevated
winds over CKV should remain below LLWS criteria for the remainder
of the night. Winds will stay gusty, but gradually turn out of the
west and then northwest overnight through Thursday morning.

A few weak showers are possible near SRB and CSV this evening,
along with a brief drop in cigs as a cold front passes by late
tonight. By 12z Thursday morning all sites should be VFR with
clear skies and gusty northwest winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      26  36  18  38 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    22  31  17  36 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     23  33  12  35 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       27  38  16  38 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     23  32  14  34 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      21  31  13  33 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   28  38  15  38 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   26  37  15  37 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        23  33  18  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Whitehead