259
FXUS64 KOHX 161731
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to Middle Tennessee this
  weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  in areas near the Tennessee River Saturday evening into Saturday
  night.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the week, peaking
  in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday.

- Look for significantly cooler temperatures from Sunday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

We will see more quiet weather today and tomorrow before some
changes come Saturday night. An upper level ridge is set up over
us with a surface high to our north. This will bring mostly clear
skies this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The
upper level ridge will start to push east tonight into Friday
with a short wave lifting out of TX. This won`t have a huge impact
on our weather but will bring some cloud cover tonight and
tomorrow. Highs will once again be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The forecast is going to become more active as we head into the
weekend. A trough will be lifting into Canada, this will push a
cold front south through the Plains and into Middle TN Saturday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to our west ahead of
the front and push east into Middle TN likely after 10 PM Saturday
night. As the low deepens over the Great Lakes we will see bulk
shear increase to 30-45 knots and 0-1 km shear go from around 10
knots Saturday afternoon to 25-35 knots Saturday evening/night.
There is still uncertainty on our severe weather threat with the
main question being how much instability do we see. The highest
probabilities of seeing CAPE greater than 250 j/kg will be from
around I-65 west with a 50-65% chance. Given the amount of shear
and time of year 250 j/kg will be enough to see a low chance for
strong storms. There is a 25-40% chance of seeing CAPE greater
than 500 j/kg which would give us a slightly better chance to see
severe thunderstorms. Once we get into range of the CAMs we should
have a better idea on CAPE and timing. With the deep layer shear
wind would be the main threat with any strong storms but given the
low level wind shear and profiles tornadoes can`t be out ruled.
As the line of thunderstorms push east of Nashville the severe
threat will really fall off as instability will be more limited.
PWATs will push up to 1.50" ahead of the front and heavy rain can
be expected with thunderstorms but the line will be moving quickly
keeping the flooding threat very low.

The front will continue to work east Sunday morning with some
lingering showers over the Plateau into Sunday afternoon. After a
hot day on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 80s much cooler
and drier air will work in during the day Sunday with highs only
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weak ridging sets up for the start
of next week returning dry weather with a slight warming trend.
An upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes on Tuesday
pushing a cold front south. This will bring us a low chance for
light showers. Rain chances diminish after Tuesday but troughing
will linger over the eastern US through the week. This will keep
highs cooler in the mid 60s to lower 70s and cool overnight lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds are NE today at 8-10
kts, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds
become southerly tomorrow with increasing mid-level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    52  83  61  88 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     46  74  54  78 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       52  83  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     49  77  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      46  75  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   51  81  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   51  82  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        54  81  60  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Sizemore