542
FXUS64 KOHX 191414
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
814 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 758 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

 - Scattered snow showers today. A dusting to half inch possible
   by midday for most areas. 1-2 inches on the Upper Cumberland
   by late today.

 - Cold Weather Advisory tonight for single digit lows and wind
   chills around -5 degrees.

 - Very cold conditions remain through at least Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Ran a quick forecast update at 8 AM to freshen hourly trends, but
no significant changes were needed.

Scattered snow showers were observed this morning with a dusting
reported in some areas, mostly across the north half of Middle
Tennessee. Some areas also had a little ice formation on elevated
surfaces, and a few slick spots were reported on bridges and
overpasses where the heavier snow showers were occurring.

For areas west of the Plateau, any issues with slick spots will
resolve by 11 AM as the snow showers dwindle from west to east,
partial clearing starts to develop, and gusty winds help with
drying. We still expect snow showers to continue into the
afternoon for the Upper Cumberland with accumulations around 1
inch, and locally 2 inches for the highest elevations. These areas
could have slick spots lasting on into the evening hours as
falling temps freeze leftover moisture.

Otherwise, it will be a blustery, day with temps holding in the
mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Cloudy and cool at forecast time, but we haven`t seen any snow. Yet.
Just this past hour, light reflectivities have started to show up on
radar in Western KY and these returns will break into our northwest
counties over the next few hours. As we move through the morning
hours, light snow will spread across the mid-state as a mid-level
impulse provides enough energy to squeeze out these flakes. The last
couple of days of ground-warming temperatures are going to help
limit much snow from accumulating west of the Cumberland Plateau
today. I would put it at a medium shot of most seeing a dusting to a
half inch today. However, the Cumberland Plateau is going to be
where we see the bulk of the snow accumulate today. Northwest
surface winds will aid in the necessary lift to help snow showers
perform better than they otherwise would. 1 to 2 inches is
definitely in the cards for our higher elevations and HREF/LREF
ensembles show there`s about a 30% shot for one or two spots to see
2 to 3 inches. In either event, we`ll have a high chance of at least
minor travel impacts, especially for elevated road surface, such as
bridges and overpasses. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory
for our Plateau counties through 6 pm this evening when the
necessary moisture for additional snow showers should be off into
East TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

This past hour, we finally reached the freezing mark in Clarksville
and strong cold air advection will continue to push an arctic air
mass into Middle TN this morning. Once we get below freezing, say
goodbye anything above freezing until at least Wednesday -- and
for some, Thursday. This is still the biggest headline of the
forecast: 72+ hours of sub-freezing temperatures. On top of that,
gusty winds will combine with single digit temperatures Monday
morning to provide us with sub-zero degree Wind Chills. This is
going to be some dangerously cold air. We already have a Cold
Weather Advisory in place for the entire mid-state Monday morning,
but an Extreme Cold Warning may become necessary for higher
elevation areas as Wind Chills could dip closer to -10 degrees.

Tuesday is still a big question for us. Most models keep us dry
regarding a frontal passage Monday night, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few flurries get squeezed out. For now, no
accumulations are expected. What this front will do is reinforce
the cold air and provide single digit temperatures again Wednesday
morning. Fortunately, the winds won`t be a factor, so Wind Chills
shouldn`t be as bad as Monday morning.

The rest of the forecast looks mainly dry, but we`ll need to watch a
late-week system that could provide some precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A broad area of snow showers is working its way through Middle TN
this morning bringing reduced visibilities and an MVFR cloud deck
to all sites. There will be breaks in the snow, but for the most
part it will persist through late morning over western sites and
mid afternoon over SRB and CSV. Visibilities will improve during
the breaks and in the afternoon when snow moves off to the east.
Cigs will be slower to lift, but should become VFR from late
afternoon in the west to around 06z in the east. Northwest winds
will be gusty around 20 knots for most of the day and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      31  10  24  16 /  50   0   0   0
Clarksville    27   8  23  14 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     29   3  20   9 /  60   0   0   0
Columbia       31   9  25  15 /  30   0   0   0
Cookeville     29   6  21  12 /  60   0   0   0
Jamestown      27   3  18   9 /  80  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   32   8  25  14 /  30   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   31   7  24  14 /  50   0   0   0
Waverly        27   8  24  15 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TNZ010-
011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Whitehead