092
FXUS64 KOHX 101108
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Very low shower and storm chances (less than 10 percent) today.
  Storm chances increase this week, peaking to 40 to 70% on
  Wednesday. Severe weather threat is very low.

- High temperatures will be slightly above normal over the next
  week. Heat index values will reach around 100 for many areas
  through this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Large area of high pressure remains over the area to end the
weekend, leading to what will be another relatively quiet day across
Middle TN. Light southerly flow will persist over the area,
resulting in some low-level moisture advection. With high pressure
overhead, rain chances for Sunday afternoon remain very low with
CAMs showing just very isolated activity. Most of the area will
stay dry as temperatures top out into the low and mid-90s for
areas west of the Plateau. Heat index values will be the mid to
upper-90s for this area as well.

By Monday, rain chances will be on the rise as high pressure shifts
to the southeast in response to an upper-level trough moving across
the Plains. Southerly flow strengthens in response to this pattern
shift, advecting more low-level moisture into the area. Monday`s
rain chances increase to the 20-30% range with best chances being in
the afternoon and evening with these dirunally-driven storms. Higher
humidity will also mean that heat indices will be on the rise as
well, with many locations across the western half of Middle TN
getting close to triple digit heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Rain chances will steadily increase through mid-week as an overall
troughing pattern continues before peaking on Wednesday to about 40-
70% as a trough tracks east through the Ohio River Valley.
Steadily increasing moisture values will also keep heat indices
high in the mid-90s to the low-100s at times. High pressure tries
to build back over the southeast US Thursday and beyond, but daily
low to medium rain chances will continue even into next weekend.
Unfortunately, the heat will stick around, too, with highs each
day in the 90s and heat indices continuing to rise into the
low-100s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
except for brief late night fog at SRB and perhaps CSV. Otherwise
skies will feature scattered cumulus clouds. Winds will be light,
mainly from the southeast. Very isolated showers will form this
afternoon, but prob for impacts at terminals is much too low to
include in tafs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  74  94  75 /  10  10  20  10
Clarksville    93  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
Crossville     86  66  86  67 /  10  10  30  10
Columbia       92  71  92  73 /  10  10  30  10
Cookeville     87  68  88  70 /  10  10  20  10
Jamestown      87  67  86  69 /  10  10  30  10
Lawrenceburg   90  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  10
Murfreesboro   92  71  92  73 /  10  10  20  10
Waverly        92  71  92  72 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13