419
FXUS64 KOHX 280519
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Cooler temperatures will persist through Friday night with
  highs mainly in the 40s and lows the next two nights mainly in
  the 20s.

- Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend with slightly
  warmer temperatures. Precipitation chances will persist into
  early next week, with some possibility of light snow Monday
  night and early Tuesday.

- Temperatures throughout most of next week will remain largely
  below seasonal norms. There will be multiple nights with
  subfreezing temperatures across the bulk of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Clear skies means tonight will be bitterly cold across Middle
Tennessee. Lows tonight will be well below freezing: around the 20s
across the area but in the low 20s and flirting with the teens east
of I-65. Dry conditions will prevail into the start of the weekend,
with temperatures well below freezing overnight and in the 40s and
50s during the day Friday and Saturday.

A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend,
bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks
to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east
overnight into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance has
significantly dropped over the last 24 hours, to where now there is
a mere <20% chance of over half an inch of QPF. This trough will
bring another shot of cold air as we enter the first few weeks of
December.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The overall pattern will remain on the active side, with medium
chances for precipitation through the extended. Guidance is saying
yes it looks like there will be another trough in the first week of
December that comes through. However, the specifics, like placement,
type, and timing, remain inconsistent from run to run. Things have
not gotten clearer over the past 24 hours as hoped, and continued to
be inconsistent. So while this is something to watch as we get
closer in time, it`s a bit hard to say anything with certainty right
now. It does look like there is a chance for wintry precipitation
next week, a small one, but again, too inconsistent to say anything
right now. Last night, the area receiving a dusting of snow was much
larger and tonight it is in a totally different area and much
smaller. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more clear in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet conditions and
mostly clear skies. Northerly winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      27  45  28  52 /   0   0   0  30
Clarksville    25  43  26  48 /   0   0   0  60
Crossville     20  39  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       25  47  26  51 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     22  40  23  48 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      22  38  22  47 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   24  46  26  51 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   23  45  25  51 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        25  44  28  47 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller