Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
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FNUS73 KOAX 170957
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for Rice Farm GS Rx Fire 2024...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
457 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Another day of quick southerly winds are forecast with gusts
peaking generally near 30mph. Cloud cover will be slowest to clear
in western Iowa, leaving high temps peaking in the mid-80s there
when parts of Nebraska will peak in the low 90s. High dewpoints
leave RH values slipping only into the 40s as a worst case
scenario. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be most
numerous mid-morning before quickly decreasing in coverage after
11am.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 29 mph
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 46% of winds
end up being a bit stronger.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
sunny (5-15 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 9 mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 14 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (75700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82 79 56 52 51 11 6
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Temp............74 76 78 81 83 85 84
RH..............77 71 66 60 54 52 53
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..11 11 11 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.16 16 16 17 17 17 17
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 8 8 9 9 9 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 12 12 13 13 13 13
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Surface wnd spd.14 14 14 15 15 15 15
Surface wnd gst.20 20 20 21 21 21 21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.3
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.18 20 20 23 24 25 24
GFDI............0 0 1 1 1 1 1
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100016 23 32 50 68 76 64
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 8 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
the late evening and overnight.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 13 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
the late evening and overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 12 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 1 6 21 40 64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............84 79 77 75 73 72
RH..............53 61 61 63 68 70
20 ft wind......S 11 SE 10 S 11 S 10 S 10 S 10
20 ft wind gust.16 14 18 18 18 18
Eye level wind..S 8 SE 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 10 14 13 13 13
Surface wind....S 14 SE 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13
Surface wnd gst.20 17 23 22 22 22
Mix hgt (ft)....2800 300 300 300 300 400
Transport wind..S 23 S 18 S 21 S 20 S 20 S 17
GFDI............1 0 1 1 0 0
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100043 13 5 4 5 6
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 14
mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around
24 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 19
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (99200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67 73 77 89 77 79 76 64 55 48 45 44
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............71 71 70 71 74 76 78 80 82 83 83 82
RH..............74 74 79 78 74 70 65 62 59 57 57 56
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10
20 FT wind gust.17 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 18
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Surface wnd spd.11 10 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13
Surface wnd gst.21 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.9 4.6 4.7 3.9
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 16 16 17 17 18 20 20 23 24 24 23
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 8 14 21 27 35 46 69 91 99 79
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
around 60. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...Nicolaisen
Requested by...Jeff Seago
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422612.0/OAX
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeffrey.seago@dnr.iowa.gov