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FNUS73 KOAX 121410
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Hitchcock East...Pottawattamie County Conservation
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
810 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CST on November 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Cool temperatures and humidity values at 94% start out the day
near Hitchcock, IA, which are expected to give way to
temperatures right at 50 degrees and humidity values around 56%
(which are on the decrease) by the 12 CST ignition time. The main
concern of the forecast is expected to be strong winds, which will
be out of the southeast throughout the day, with gusts starting
out at 20-25 mph at 9 AM before quickly increasing to 30-40 mph by
noon. Winds will remain steady direction-wise, with the next
change in direction coming tomorrow morning around 12 PM as a
front switches them northwesterly.

Conditions that are helping bring those stronger winds will also
bring the benefit of better ventilation, with mixing heights at
12 PM starting at 2000 ft AGL increasing to their peak of 2200 ft
at 3 PM. Temperatures also hit their peak at that time, with
relative humidity values falling to their lowest of the day of
45-50%. Expect temperatures to drop, winds to decrease slightly,
and humidity values to increase at 5 PM and for those trends to
accelerate after sunset.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 40 mph

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 45%

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 17 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 15 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 23 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (44400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................9.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 15 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 14 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................6.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog in
                    the morning. Rain showers likely in the
                    morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 8 mph shifting to the west 7
                    to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 22 mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 13 to 14 mph shifting to the west
                    11 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 22
                    mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 12 mph shifting to the west
                    10 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 22
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (38400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Petersen
Requested by...chad graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426334.0/OAX
.DELDT 11/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chad.graeve@pottcounty-ia.gov