626
FXUS63 KOAX 081933
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
133 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick-moving band of snow could produce a dusting of snow Thursday
  into Thursday evening (35-55% chance), with isolated areas
  receiving up to 0.5".


- Chilly temperatures will continue with highs in the 20s/low
  30s. Morning lows are expected in the teens with wind chills
  in the positive single digits.

- An additional chance of light snow is present Saturday night
  into Sunday morning (20-30% chance, highest in northeast
  Nebraska).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

Upper level analysis this afternoon depicts a closed low over the
southern California/Baja region with the remainder of the CONUS
dominated by broad/positively tilted troughing. Conditions remain
pleasant today with mostly sunny skies and a few gusty winds, though
highs will only peak in the 20s. Thursday will start the day with
morning lows in the teens and wind chills in the positive single
digits.

A northeast-to-southwest oriented cold front will push southeast
through the area Thursday, thanks to a shortwave disturbance
traversing the northern Plains. Behind the front, snow chances
return along with the onset of gusty winds. Northwesterly wind
gusts exceeding 30 mph will be possible behind the front. As far
as snow chances are concerned, scattered snow showers will be
likely beginning in northeast Nebraska during the late
morning/afternoon. Model soundings indicate steepening low-level
lapse rates and just enough instability in the mixed layer to
bring concerns for a few brief, heavier snow showers. Most of
the area can expect a trace or a quick dusting, while an
isolated few tenths to half an inch will be possible if a
heavier snow shower can develop. However, moisture remains
limited enough to keep snowfall totals, even in the heavier snow
showers, capped under 1". PoPs currently peak in the 45-55%
range in northeast Nebraska and decrease towards 30% as the
front pushes through the remainder of the area.

While a true snow squall does not seem likely at this time, the
gusty winds and showery nature could bring a brief period of
decreased visibility and slick roads. Snow chances peak during the
evening commute timeframe (5-7 PM) for both the Omaha and Lincoln
metros, meaning a close eye will have to be kept on travel
conditions for the evening commute. On the bright side, moisture and
instability looks to decrease as the front progresses southward,
limiting the potential for any heavier snow showers later in the
afternoon/evening. HREF guidance brings a 60% probability of 0.5" of
snow in northeast Nebraska with chances decreasing towards 20% as
you progress south of the US-Highway 20 corridor. It is also worth
noting that highs are expected in the low 30s on Thursday, though
temperatures will quickly drop into the 20s behind the front. While
a brief period of a light rain/snow mix is possible (mostly along
and south of I-80), snow appears the dominant precipitation type.

Long Term (Friday and Beyond)

Friday will be a pleasant January day with partly cloudy skies, a
light breeze and highs in the low 30s. Morning lows through the
weekend will generally remain in the teens with wind chills in the
positive single digits. A brief period of zonal flow on Saturday
will bring highs into the mid 30s.

Another low-end precipitation chance (20-30% chance) returns to the
forecast Saturday evening into Sunday morning as another shortwave
disturbance slides across the northern Plains and pushes a cold
front through the area. The better forcing looks to remain to our
north, over the Dakotas/Minnesota. However, enough moisture will be
present for a light dusting, especially over northeast Nebraska and
west-central Iowa.

Highs looks to stay in the 20s from Sunday into the start of the
next work week with no additional notable precipitation chances. The
chilly weather looks to stay as the CPC`s 8-14 day outlook (valid
January 15-21) projects temperatures to lean below average with
equal chances of above and below average precipitation totals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will remain out of
the southwest with a gradual clockwise shift to northwesterly
overnight. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts up to
20 kts possible before calming after 23-00z. In the final hours
of the forecast period (15-18Z). MVFR ceilings and scattered
snow showers will approach KOFK. Due to the scattered nature of
the snow, have opted to leave out of the TAFs until confidence
is gained in their location and coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood