780
FXUS63 KOAX 061048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather continues for today with highs in the mid 50s
  to near 60F under light winds.

- Cold front moves through by daybreak Monday with a few clouds.
  Breezy 15-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected
  Monday morning. Winds ease by Monday evening.

- Temperatures warm for Tuesday and Wednesday and again into the
  weekend. PoP chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday
  (15-30%) and again Thursday (15-20%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday Night/

Sfc high continues to sit over Nebraska per 8z RAP objective
analysis resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds across the
OAX forecast area. The clear skies and light winds are leading to
effective radiational cooling as temperatures have reached the low
to mid 20s north to around 30F along and south of I-80 as of 8z. The
pleasant conditions will continue into the daytime hours today as
highs reach the mid 50s to near 60F (almost 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday) with only some mid to high level clouds and light
westerly winds. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s north to mid 30s
south.

Sunday evening into early Monday morning will see the 500 mb
southwest US longwave trough merge with a closed 500 mb Canadian low
currently over the Ontario/Hudson Bay area. As the two features
merge, a shortwave and associated vorticity lobe ejects from the
parent Canadian low and swings southward toward eastern
Minnesota/Wisconsin. This feature induces an 850 mb low across the
Wisconsin/Great Lakes area by early Monday morning, and will drag
its associated baroclinic zone/sfc cold front over the forecast area
through daybreak Monday. Moisture still appears very limited with
this disturbance as does forcing for ascent, so only expecting a few
clouds. Winds will be on the increase though, primarily behind the
front, with sustained north northeasterly winds of 15-20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph through about the late morning/noon hour. Highs
Monday will be cooler due to the CAA behind the front, thus only
reaching the upper 40s north to mid 50s along and south of I-80.
Winds ease by Monday morning to 10 mph or less as sfc ridging moves
southward behind the front. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/

1000-500 mb thermal ridging will amplify across western portions of
the Central and Northern Plains on Tuesday and move across the
forecast area by Wednesday before breaking down. This will result in
highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s for Tuesday and mid 60s to
low 70s by Wednesday. PoP chances return to the forecast Tuesday
evening into Wednesday (15-30% chance) as a shortwave ejects from
the Rockies area and induces a sfc low. Thursday will see a
secondary wave/impulse move through resulting in some light PoPs (15-
20% chance) across our far east, although there is some model
uncertainty regarding how far westward these PoPs could move. Highs
Thursday cool slightly to the mid to upper 60s.

The warming trend will continue into the upcoming weekend as a
second, more potent thermal ridge builds over the western CONUS on
Friday. Highs Saturday and into the weekend could reach the mid 70s
to around 80F, and these model trends would agree heavily with
current CPC 6-10 day temperature outlooks which show at least 70 to
80% of the forecast area seeing above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a
few passing clouds at FL250. Light west winds today at less than
10 kt switch to southwest this evening at KOMA and KLNK, and
then to the north at the end of the forecast period at all
terminal locations.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo/Mead
AVIATION...Mead