057
FXUS63 KOAX 112304
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
604 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of additional storms this evening and
  overnight, and a 5% chance of severe storms. The main threats
  would be damaging winds and hail.

- Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up
  Sunday through Tuesday.

- Active weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Today and Tonight...

A few weak showers and thunderstorms festered across the eastern
fringes of our forecast area through the morning hours. Temperatures
rising into the 70s and 80s combined with dewpoints in the 60s and
70s led to a boost of instability this afternoon, as MUCAPE estimates
approached 2000 J/kg. A surface low tracked through southeast
Nebraska and into southwest Iowa by early afternoon. A few storms
have begun to develop east of the Missouri River. Spotty showers and
storms will continue to pop-up in the vicinity of this surface low
through the remainder of the afternoon, before gradually shifting
off to our east over central Iowa. Thankfully, the better chance for
severe storm development looks to remain just to our east and south
this afternoon.

CAMs suggest another band of storms developing in the vicinity of a
cold front, draped from southwest to northeast, over northeast
Nebraska this evening. Overall CAM trends continue to indicate this
line will struggle, gradually dissipating as it moves southeast this
evening.

Round 3 will come in the form of an MCV-driven complex that develops
near the Nebraska panhandle and surges southeast overnight. While
these too are expected to gradually weaken as they move southeast
with the lack of daytime heating, an isolated strong to severe
updraft can`t be completely ruled out.

Overall, all three rounds of storms will likely be limited by the
marginal 20-30kts of shear across the region, making it hard for
updrafts to become well organized. While the strongest updrafts may
be capable of briefly producing some strong winds or marginally
severe hail, the greatest threat looks to be the potential for a
quick Tornado to spin up near the surface low in southwest Iowa,
with this initial round of storms. However, that potential is
quickly shifting eastward with the departing low.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Drier weather returns this weekend as mid-level heights rise.
Saturday will actually be fairly nice, with highs in the low 80s and
dewpoints only in the low 60s, as opposed to the 70s that we`ve been
smothered with recently. A few showers or weak storms may graze the
area as a shortwave passes to our south Saturday night/Sunday
morning. Otherwise dry weather is expected to prevail across the
majority of the forecast area through Sunday. Highs on Sunday will
top out in the mid to upper 80s, with dew points into the mid to
upper 60s.

Temperatures remain warm into next week, with mostly dry conditions
through Tuesday. Highs will reach the 90s on Monday and 80s Tuesday.

Tuesday Night and Beyond...

Widespread rain chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday, as a
cold front drops in from our north and a shortwave moves in from the
southwest. Machine learning probs continue to highlight the Central
Plains for severe chances Tuesday and Wednesday, likely give the
robust instability that will be in place. However, severe storm may
be limited by the lack of strong deep layer shear, which is still
forecast to remain off to our north.

Behind the frontal passage, temperatures will cool into the 70s and
80s, making for a comfortable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the short-
term forecast holding northerly winds and a line of showers and
storms, that should stay weak while it pulses up and down on its
way to the KOFK vicinity from 01-02z. That same line is also
forecast to near the KOMA/KLNK terminals, but is expected to be
pretty sparse and weak, with not enough confidence to include in
the TAF at this time. Otherwise, we`ll see northerly to
northwesterly winds continue, with speeds generally staying
below 15 kts while some smoke wafts overhead.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen