799
FXUS63 KOAX 241744
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 20% chance of showers and storms this morning along and
  west of a line from Creighton to Fremont to Lincoln.
  Otherwise, most will see a mix of clouds and sun as highs
  reach the low to mid 70s. Lows cool to the mid 40s to mid 50s.

- Slight chance (15%) of a shower or storm across our far
  southwest Monday morning. Most will stay dry with highs
  reaching the low to mid 70s.

- Next chance for showers and storms is Wednesday into Thursday
  morning, especially along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas
  border area. Details remain uncertain, but some spots could
  see locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A cool morning is observed across OAX, with 08z METARs showing
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Winds are light and variable,
owing to the presence of a sfc ridge located across much of the
Dakotas into Nebraska and Iowa. Areas of patchy fog may redevelop
once again early this morning across the Missouri River Valley into
western Iowa, but coverage and duration should be limited given the
dry air mass in place.

H5 pattern is still dominated by two main features early this
morning: the high located in the southwest US, and the closed low
observed over the eastern Ontario/Hudson Bay area. This places much
of the Northern Plains in northwesterly flow which will allow a few
subtle disturbances to traverse through in the short term forecast
period. As of 08z, KOAX WSR-88D radar is showing a few weak showers
and storms across Antelope and northwest Madison counties. Much of
this appears driven both by a weak shortwave at H7 in tandem with H8
low level warm air advection seen rounding the H8 ridge whose center
is in central Kansas. Sfc observations suggest that precipitation
isn`t reaching the ground, which correlates with BUFKIT soundings
showing a layer of dry air just below H8.

CAM guidance suggests that these showers and storms will fester
until around the noon hour, primarily along and west of a line from
near Creighton to Fremont to Lincoln. However, any showers that
develop will have to overcome the low level dry air previously
mentioned and any large scale subsidence from the sfc high,
especially to the east of these areas. Have thus kept PoP mentions
to 15 to 20% in the aforementioned areas through at least 17z.

Otherwise, most areas today should see a mix of clouds and sun with
highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds remain light and from the north
northwest. Lows tonight will be rather cool, with northeast Nebraska
and western Iowa in the mid 40s, while the rest of the area has lows
in the low to mid 50s.

Late tonight into Monday morning, an H5 shortwave trof will advance
through the northwesterly flow, bringing another threat for some
scattered rain showers. Model guidance suggests a fairly similar
setup to today, with CAMs suggesting areas of scattered showers
along our western border areas. However, the better QG forcing will
remain farther to our west and south. And, similar to today, BUFKIT
soundings would suggest low level dry air may limit precip
potential. Have left most of the forecast area dry with the lone
exception of our far southwest areas which may be clipped by a
shower (15% chance) after sunrise.

Monday will see highs once again in the low to mid 70s under a mix
of clouds and sun. Winds will remain light and variable as the sfc
high sits right over the eastern Dakotas into the Missouri River
Valley. Lows Monday night will be similar to Sunday night.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Another H5 shortwave will ripple through early Tuesday morning
across central Nebraska leading to some low end 15% chances for
showers clipping our far northwest. Once the wave ejects southeast,
Tuesday should be a fairly nice day with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

Beyond Tuesday, the H5 ridge across the southwest US will finally
move east into portions of the Central and Northern Plains. Model
guidance depicts several waves riding the top of the ridge Wednesday
and Thursday. This has resulted in a gradual increase in PoPs
throughout the daytime Wednesday into early Thursday morning across
much of the forecast area. PoPs peak at 40 to 65% primarily along
the Nebraska/Kansas border early Thursday morning.

While still several days out, some of the GEFS, GEPS, and ENS data
from the LREF in tandem with deterministic guidance seem to suggest
the potential for locally heavy rainfall late Wednesday into
Thursday morning, most likely along the Nebraska/Kansas border area
and points south. LREF indicates a normal distribution of PWATs
centered around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, and with increasing warm cloud
depths supporting warm rain processes, certainly can`t rule out
heavy rain potential. Again, this is still several days out and
model guidance will fluctuate, but will continue to monitor trends.
Otherwise, low end 15 to 30% chances for showers and storms will
continue into the upcoming weekend.

Temperatures will remain in the 70s to low 80s for much of the
extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period with
scattered clouds around 4000-6000 ft through this afternoon and
winds out of the north-northwest at around 7-10 kts. We`re still
seeing a few isolated showers in far southeast Nebraska, no
longer impacting KLNK. Skies will gradually clear this evening
apart from far southeast Nebraska which will continue to see
bkn cigs around 8000 ft overnight. Winds will ease to around 3-5
kts overnight and turn more to the north-northeast. These
conditions will hold through Monday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy