586
FXUS63 KOAX 071743
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across much of the area
  this morning. Severe weather is unlikely (less than 5%
  chance). The greatest chance for rainfall up to an inch is
  along and south of a line from Albion to Omaha to Clarinda.

- Light showers are possible again on Sunday (30% chance).

- Warming trend next week, with highs approaching 90 by
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A healthy shortwave is approaching eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa this morning, leading to scattered shower and storm
development currently ongoing across central Nebraska. This
activity will translate eastward as the shortwave gets closer,
bringing shower and weak thunderstorm activity to our area
between 5-10 AM. Model soundings show a modest amount of
instability ahead of the shortwave, which is enough for
thunderstorm development, but not quite enough for organized
severe potential. Some of the hi-res models have gusts up to 35
kt as the line of storms move across our area this morning, but
that`s likely the worst we could see from this.

Rainfall amounts as these showers and storms move through this
morning will for the most part stay under an inch, with higher
amounts of around 0.5 inch more likely for southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. Showers should come to an end this afternoon
with gradually clearing skies. High temperatures this afternoon
will stay fairly mild, only getting up into the mid 70s to
around 80 toward central Nebraska.

A more longwave trough drops south out of Canada on Sunday
pushing a cool front south into Nebraska and Iowa. This will
bring additional low chances for showers and storms (15-30%) on
Sunday, though due to their widely scattered nature, many likely
won`t see much if any accumulating rainfall.

Going into next week, an upper-level ridge shifting east out of
the Rockies will bring a warming trend with high temperatures
reaching near 90 by Wednesday. As the ridge continues east
toward the end of the week, we start to see more significant
moisture advection into the region on the back side of the ridge
from the Gulf, increasing instability and bringing back chances
for showers and storms Thursday-Friday. Right now not seeing
any significant potential for severe storms, but many of the
details toward the end of the week still need to be sorted out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with SCT to BKN clouds
around 3500-5000 ft agl this afternoon. Winds will be out of the
west to southwest, generally under 10 kts before becoming
northwesterly overnight into early Sunday, with gusts of 20 kts
at OFK. Can`t completely rule out some light showers Sunday
morning as the wind shift occurs, but confidence in coverage is
too low to include at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA