062
FXUS63 KOAX 101057
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
457 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance (20%) of precipitation is present Saturday
  night from northeast Nebraska into western Iowa.

- With temperatures near the freezing point, precipitation could
  fall as rain, snow, or freezing rain.

- Monday is expected to be the coldest day of the forecast
  period with highs in the teens to 20s. Thursday could be the
  warmest with temperatures warming into the low 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A sizable trof stretches from our northern international border
to our southern one as visible on WV imagery early this
morning. At the surface, the cold front has passed through this
forecast area and has made its way past the KC metro. The last
of the snowflakes associated with its dynamics have left our
area and are now the problem of Missouri and Kansas.

Temperatures are mostly within spitting range of freezing though
the northwestern most five ASOS sites have fallen well into the
twenties since skies there have cleared. Still, these low
thirties will represent the day`s warmest temps. Partly cloudy
skies won`t fully offset the robust cold air advection. Have
maintained 10% PoPs over much of the northeastern half of the
CWA for this afternoon, but have removed their mention in the
grids as the low-level humidity looks less saturated than it did
with earlier forecasts. Believe best chance of flurries
reaching the ground will be just northeast of the forecast area.
Maybe virga will be the correct answer here.

.THE WEEKEND...

A trof crashing onshore in British Columbia will deepen and
cross the High Plains over the next 72 hours. Southerly winds
ahead of the system should help Saturday`s temps climb higher
than the numbers forecast for today. Expect mostly cloudy skies
and mid- to upper-30s before another cold front and another
outside chance of precipitation mostly after dark Saturday.
Humidity is scant and PoPs are reasonably low at 20-30%. P-type
concerns will persist with temps close to the freezing point.
Forecast soundings support snow, rain, and freezing rain. Sunday
will be dry and a couple of degrees cooler.

.MID-JANUARY...

With mid-level trofing over the Great Lakes, our part of the
world will be under quasi-northerly mid-level flow for the
first half of next week. Any disturbance could produce some
precipitation and perhaps Tuesday will be the day do just that,
though the origination of the airmass means it will be
relatively moisture- starved. Temperatures will generally be
coolest on Monday (near 20-25F) and moderate over the course of
the following days and peak near 40F on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 456 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds at 8-9 knots
at TAF issuance, increase to 12-22 knots 15-23z, then below 12
knots for 2nd half of of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald