


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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280 FXUS63 KOAX 180900 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds this afternoon and evening behind another cold front. Low chance of showers possible north of I-80 with this system. - Areas of frost likely in northeast Nebraska Sunday morning with a Frost Advisory in place from 3 AM to 9 AM. - Winds increase again on Monday with another shot of cooler air arriving early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Mostly clear skies this morning with some patchy dense fog in southwest Iowa near Clarinda and Atlantic. The front that moved through yesterday is generating storms across north-central Missouri this morning off to the southeast while a second, reinforcing front is expected to move through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. This front is associated with an upper- level trough moving into the Great Lakes region, bringing in a cooler Canadian air mass into our area behind the front as well as stronger winds out of the northwest that will linger through the afternoon only weakening after dark this evening. There is a 30-50% chance of showers along this front this afternoon north of I-80, with showers being primarily along and lingering behind the front. Minimal instability should keep any thunderstorms from developing. With cooler temperatures moving in tonight, skies clearing west to east through the evening hours, and winds relaxing, we`ll see temperatures drop into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area Sunday morning. Some locations in northeast Nebraska may approach freezing, leading us to issue a Frost Advisory for these locations in northeast and east-central Nebraska through 9 AM. As the trough moves off to the east on Sunday, we see a second wave moving into the PacNW amplify the ridge moving out of the Rockies into the northern Plains. This will make for quiet weather on Sunday with high pressure sliding across the region and temperatures peaking in the low-to-mid 60s. We`ll see a wind reversal to southerly by late in the day on Sunday ahead of the next approaching trough, with a strengthening low-level jet developing across central Kansas nosing into eastern Nebraska. A dry but strong cold front will move across the area Monday morning bringing back strong northwesterly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. With lack of moisture we`ll want to monitor fire potential closely, especially for agricultural fires which could spread quickly Monday afternoon. Northwesterly flow remains in place through Tuesday keeping temperatures on the cooler side with winds becoming much more manageable through the day on Tuesday. Looking at the broader upper-level pattern for clues in the forecast going into the latter half of the week, we see an active Pacific Jet continue to lead create a amplified, meridional flow regime going into next weekend. Another Aleutian Low will amplify the ridge moving into the central CONUS going into the latter half of next week leading to a warming trend. Despite the ridge over the central CONUS we see the cut-off low that has been sitting and spinning off the coast of southern California finally get picked back up and pushed eastward across the Southwest into the Central Plains Thursday. With the Low traveling just to our south, we are clipped by some shower and thunderstorm chances across our far southern counties Thursday into early Friday, but details on this are still uncertain until we see the Low actually start to move into the CONUS in a couple of days. Warmer temperatures with highs around 70 appear likely to linger into the weekend until the next trough arrives in the Sunday night-Monday timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light and variable winds this evening will become northwesterly around 14-16Z as a cold front moves through the region. Expect sustained winds to increase to around 15-20kts following the frontal passage. Ceilings are expected to lower as the front moves through, though they are expected to remain at VFR conditions. KOFK may have a few showers move through between 18-20Z and OMA between 20-21Z. The shower activity is currently expected to stay north of KLNK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>033-042-043-050. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...ANW