753
FXUS63 KOAX 142011
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and humid through Tuesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance of storms late Tuesday afternoon
  through Tuesday night, with a 10-20% chance of severe storms,
  especially in northeast Nebraska. The primary threats are
  damaging winds and localized flooding, but some hail is also
  possible.

- Additional rounds of storms will continue Wednesday into early
  Thursday, and again Friday evening into the weekend. Severe
  weather will be possible at times, with the threat of flooding
  increasing with each successive round.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Midlevel ridging over the region helped maintain dry conditions
today. Winds remained light and southwesterly at 5-15 mph this
afternoon, as highs climbed towards 90 degrees.

Temperatures will dip back into the upper 60s tonight before
rebounding back into the upper 80s and low 90s again tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a trough will begin to dig into the northern CONUS,
eventually dragging a cold front into the region by late Tuesday
afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the upper 60s and low 70s,
with steepening midlevel lapse rates.  1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will
pool ahead ahead of the boundary by 00Z Tuesday. Expect storms to
develop near the NE/SD border tomorrow afternoon, and quickly grow
upscale into an MCS. Initial storms over far northeast Nebraska
could be capable of producing large hail, with marginal bulk shear
vectors up to 30 kts. But again this will likely be limited by the
storms converging into a line and developing a cold pool, resulting
in damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The complex should
gradually weaken as it moves southeast, and daytime heating wanes.

Spotty showers and storms will linger into Wednesday morning.
Overall, the forecast for Wednesday will be dictated by where the
convective remnants, like left over boundaries and cloud cover from
Tuesday night shake out. There still remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as to where the main front ends up Wednesday. At the
moment, several models have it just to our south, limiting storm
potential. However, should it lift back north as a warm front, as a
few of the previous runs suggest, we could be in for another round
of storms Wednesday evening. MUCAPE could reach over 2000 J/kg south
of the front, however storms` longevity will once again be limited
by the lack of robust shear.

While neither Tuesday nor Wednesday are giving extreme heavy rain
potential, repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to some
localized flooding issues, due in part to our already saturated
soils.

Thursday and Beyond...

A few showers and storms could again linger into Thursday. The
location of these would again be dependent on the location of the
front, but the highest chance currently looks to be over far
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overall, drier conditions are
expected for the majority of the forecast area on Thursday.
Additionally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. Highs will dip
from the mid/upper 80s on Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s on
Thursday.

Temperatures rebound back into the 80s and possibly low 90s, as a
shortwave moves in from the Rockies Friday. This disturbance will
bring yet another marginal chance for strong to severe storms, with
the potential for ample instability but low shear. This unsettled
pattern continues with multiple shortwaves bringing additional off-
and-on chances through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some upper level
smoke from ongoing wildfires to our west may lead to hazy skies
at times, but no near surface visibility restrictions are
anticipated. Winds will remain out of the south at 5 to 12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG