264
FXUS63 KOAX 011736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sharply cooler today, but the remainder of the forecast is
  populated by warmer than normal temperatures.

- Dry conditions persist and will lead to fire weather concerns
  on days with stronger winds. Highest chances for impacts will
  be Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a lengthy cold front
stretching from the Hudson Bay to Amarillo, TX. The front is dry
enough that it is primarily cloud free beyond a little cirrus.
Most of the CONUS`s cloud cover is associated with the detritus
of Helene over the East Coast.

Behind the cold front here in Nebraska and Iowa, surface winds
remain a little breezy out of the NNW, with wind speeds mostly
10-15 mph and the occasional gust up to 20 mph. As of 3AM,
temps are mostly in 50s... not far off of where we were just 24
hours ago. But upstream, temps have fallen considerably. Rapid
City, SD has lost over 30 degrees since this point last night.

That same cold air will pour into this area over the course of
the day on slowing northerly winds. As high pressure settles in
by sunset, those winds will continue to slow and become light
and variable overnight. Temperatures will hit highs near 70F
this afternoon. A lack of wind and cloud cover with dewpoints
near 30F will give rise to efficient diurnal cooling ("It`ll be
kinda chilly").

.WEDNESDAY...

Fire danger climbs again on Wednesday with return flow and sunny
skies pushing temperatures into the lower 80s. Pre-cold front
southwesterly winds will become breezy - blowing 15-25 mph.
Dewpoints in the middle to upper 30s will lead to RH values
dipping to near 20%. Sustained winds will be as high as 18-21
mph. This is borderline RED FLAG WARNING criteria, so any
adjustments in the forecast may lead to another headline
issuance.... especially north of I-80 where fuels are drier.
We`ve just wrapped up the driest September on record at Omaha
and Norfolk and Lincoln had a top 5 driest September.

.LONGER RANGE...

The entire 7-day forecast remains dry with mostly zonal flow
forecast at H5. That west to east flow is expected to push
another shortwave through the area by the end of the week. It
looks like Saturday afternoon might bring the warm sector
through this CWA. If the timing lines up, it would bring a
chance of a very late 90 degree day. The current forecast has
LNK reaching that mark which would be the season`s latest 90F
in the past 9 years. The unseasonable heat and lack of
precipitation all but guarantees further degradation of drought
conditions across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing high
clouds and perhaps a little smoke aloft. Northwest winds at 5 to
10 kts this afternoon will become southerly this evening and
overnight, then southwesterly Wednesday morning with gusts of
20-30 kts through the remainder of the period. Could also see a
period of low level wind shear at OFK from 10-14Z with winds
aloft out of the southwest at 40 to 45 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...CA