


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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361 FXUS63 KOAX 011025 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 525 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected for today with light winds and highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. - Low end PoPs (15-30% chance) return for far northern and northeastern portions of the forecast area early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, highs Wednesday warm to the upper 80s to low 90s under partly sunny skies. - Low end PoPs continue Thursday (~15%) south of I-80, before peaking on Friday (40-60%) areawide. Scattered showers and storm chances continue Saturday through Monday (20-40% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday Night/ Quiet conditions were observed early this morning across much of the Northern Plains with GOES-19 satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies. Looking aloft, 8z 500 mb RAP objective analysis shows the positively tilted trof axis now over the Great Lakes area, with ridging over much of the southwest US while a 500 mb closed low spins just off the west coast of California. 8z METARs across much of Nebraska and northern Kansas show weak anticyclonic flow as 8z objective analysis shows the 1018 mb high centered over central Nebraska into western Kansas. With the light winds and clear skies leading to radiational cooling, may see some patchy fog early this morning. If any fog develops, much of it should burn off after sunrise. Sfc ridge will remain in place across much of the forecast area today resulting in sunny skies and light northwesterly winds. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, and with slightly lower dew points, feels like temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s so overall, today should be a pleasant day. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with cloud cover increasing ahead of a weak disturbance. Later tonight into early Wednesday morning, a weak mid level wave riding the ridge will eject from the Wyoming area to the east and ride along the Nebraska/Kansas border, while the aforementioned sfc high moves southeastward. Although weak, Q-vector convergence will overspreading the forecast area while the 850 mb jet helps draw in some theta-e advection. As a result, CAMs do hint at some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across northeast Nebraska after 2 am Wednesday, eventually diving southeast following the jet nose while staying close to the northern and eastern edges of our forecast area. Showers and storms will exit late Wednesday morning. PoPs currently are at 15-25% in the aforementioned areas. Although instability is rather meager and rooted aloft, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out with bulk shear at or slightly above 30 kts at times. The wave and forcing will move to the east throughout the day Wednesday. Although some forcing lingers in the forecast area, the best forcing and chance for PoPs will be just east of the forecast area. Much of the global suite of models keep us dry, while the CAMs as of this forecast package show a wide range of solutions. Some CAMs generate convection to the east and northeast (HRRR, HiRes FV3, NSSL WRF, NAM 4km Nest) of the forecast area with much of us staying dry aside from a few pop up showers in the evening, while the 00z run of the HiRes ARW seems to be the outlier as it develops convection Wednesday evening along a west to east low level convergent zone over northeast Nebraska. Given the wide range of solutions, have opted to follow NBM guidance which keeps us dry, but expect further refinements to PoPs in the upcoming forecast packages. Highs Wednesday will be warmer, with values in the low to mid 90s. Winds will also be breezier as a tighter pressure gradient sets up across much of Nebraska given a sfc low develops west over eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/ 500 mb ridging over the southwest US will push into the south central and southeast US as we head toward the end of the work week. This results in southwesterly flow returning to much of the Central and Northern Plains starting Thursday with several shortwaves riding the flow. These waves will lead to low end PoP chances Thursday (~15% near the Kansas border). Breezy southerly winds are also expected given a tightening pressure gradient. By Friday, will see a stronger wave induce lee cyclogenesis with the sfc low tracking across portions of the western Dakotas. The frontal boundary will track across Nebraska, triggering areas of scattered showers and storms. PoPs on Friday peak at 40 to 60% areawide. Winds will also be breezy from the south. The front is expected to linger across eastern Nebraska for much of Saturday leading to continued PoP chances (20-40%) before finally exiting the forecast area Sunday. 30% PoPs continue into Sunday and Monday, however, as yet another midlevel wave approaches from the west. Severe chances during this period look low per machine learning guidance, with around a 5% chance seen from GEFS and Euro based probabilities. High temperatures in the extended will largely remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, although a slight cool down is observed Sunday behind the front (mid to upper 80s). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail for this TAF cycle. Will see light winds from the west northwest under 12 kts across terminals today as sfc high pressure dominates the area. Winds become southerly this evening as the sfc high moves east away from the area. A low end chance (15%) for a scattered shower or storm exists at KOFK late in the TAF period, but confidence that the terminal will see impacts remains too low for inclusion in TAF at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Castillo