917
FXUS63 KOAX 120458
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers remain across northern Nebraska this afternoon.

- Gusty winds and temperatures in the 80s are expected for
  Sunday.

- Sunday night through mid-week, chances for showers and thunderstorms
  are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing out across
southeastern Nebraska this afternoon. Clouds remain over
northeastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A few lingering showers
remain across northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. These will taper
off over the next couple of hours. Expect highs to reach the mid to
upper 70s in areas where cloud cover has diminished, and the low to
mid-70s for areas still dealing with some cloud cover.

We`ll see a pattern shift on Sunday as the ridge moves east and a
500h trough arrives over the western part of the Dakotas. Models
show a closed low developing over southern Saskatchewan and
northern North Dakota and Montana during the afternoon hours.
The forecast area can expect a tightening pressure gradient,
resulting in some stronger winds with gusts approaching
30-35mph. Southerly winds will bring in warmer air as well, with
highs reaching into the 80s, giving us another taste of summer.
Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms may be possible for northeastern Nebraska and
western Iowa Sunday morning.

An attendant cold front will develop in association with the closed
low, sliding southeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
overnight Sunday into Monday. This may kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms across the region. High temperatures on Monday
will be pleasant, ranging from the mid-60s for much of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa to the low 80s for areas along and
south of a line from Falls City to Clarinda.

High pressure will be in place over the Arklatex region through mid-
week, resulting in some return flow of moisture up into the Central
Plains. A couple of weak shortwaves embedded in the larger flow
pattern will trek across the plains states Monday through Wednesday,
bringing some chances for showers and a few isolated storms. Tuesday
highs will be mainly in the 50s and 60s while lows fall into the 40s
and 50s. Wednesday will be warmer, with temperatures returning to
the 60s and 70s.

Heading into the latter part of the week, an upper trough over the
Rockies shifts east into the Central High Plains. Models show a
closed low developing with an attendant cold front sliding across
Nebraska and Iowa, ushering cooler temperatures in for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with winds the primary concern. Southeasterly surface
winds will continue at 12-18 kts, with gusts reaching 22-28 kts.
A southerly low-level jet has developed, bringing LLWS of 45-50
kts between 1500-1800 ft at all three terminals. LLWS is
expected to diminish by late morning, followed by strengthening
southerly surface winds. There is a chance (15%) of isolated showers
this morning. However, due to low confidence in shower coverage,
this potential has not been included in the current TAFs. Gusts
will increase through the morning and early afternoon, with
peak gusts of 25-32 kts anticipated this afternoon. A frontal
passage will shift winds to northwesterly during the late
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood