284
FXUS63 KOAX 300453
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous wildfire conditions in northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon.
  A Red Flag Warning is now in effect.

- Well above average high temperatures Monday, nearly normal Tuesday,
  and then above normal for the remainder of the week.

- Dry conditions are expected through the 7 day forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Tonight and Monday:

A vigorous short-wave trough currently located over the Canadian
Rockies into Pacific Northwest is forecast to undergo considerable
amplification while translating into central Canada and the north-
central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, ridging in place over the
mid MO Valley as of early afternoon will weaken tonight ahead of a
cold front, which will move through our area between late Monday
morning and Monday evening.

It will be another hot day ahead of the front on Monday with highs
of 85 to 90. Meanwhile, behind the front in northeast NE, winds will
switch to northwest and strengthen to 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30
to 35 mph. The strong winds coupled with the influx of a drier low-
level air mass (i.e., minimum RH of 13-18%) will result in an
environment favorable for rapid wildfire spread given ignition. As
was mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, the lack of
meaningful rainfall over the last couple of weeks and the
resultant 1-2 drought monitor class degradation makes us believe
that fuels are likely cured enough to support an upgrade of the
existing Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning (RFW). The
RFW will also include Wayne, Stanton, and Platte Counties.
Farther east, Thurston and Cuming counties will be placed in a
Fire Weather Watch where confidence in Red Flag conditions is a
little lower (50-70% chance).


Tuesday through Saturday:

A notably cooler air mass will overspread the region Monday night
into Tuesday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.
However, developing zonal flow aloft will induce a low-level warm
advection pattern Tuesday night with highs on Wednesday bouncing
back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Gusty south-southwest winds
combined with a persistent, dry air mass will result in very high
fire danger across northeast NE and portions of southeast NE and
west-central IA.

Another weak front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday
night, leading to slightly cooler conditions Thursday with highs in
the mid 70s to low 80s. On Friday, the 12z models indicate we will
reside to the north of a stalled front across KS and MO with highs
largely in the 70s. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer by
Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

No rainfall is expected over the next week, resulting in
worsening drought conditions and greater wildfire potential,
especially on windier days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Winds below 10 knots out of the southeast will continue to veer
through the night, becoming south-southwesterly 5 to 15 knots
by 18Z. After 18Z, the cold front will sweep northwest to
southeast across the area bringing winds out of the northwest at
10 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 30 knots possible. The most
likely time of frontal passage can be found in the last FM group
of the TAFs. Low-level wind shear appears to likely remain just
below criteria to include in TAFs at KOFK. However, the 0-2 kft
shear vector will likely be out of the south at 25 to 30 knots
for KOFK between 09Z and 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ015-033.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah