578
FXUS63 KOAX 122305
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moving through the region will shift southerly
  winds to the northwest tonight and usher in cooler
  temperatures.

- Daily chances for a few showers and rumbles of thunder will be
  possible across at least a portion of the area.

- Expect a warm up Wednesday and Thursday before another system
  moves in, bringing cooler temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A closed low is in place over Saskatchewan and Manitoba this
afternoon with an attendant cold front extending south into
Nebraska. A warm front is in place across western Iowa. The cold
front has made it through O`Neill and Ord and is moving into eastern
Nebraska. Expect highs today in the warm sector to reach into the
mid-80s for most areas. Southerly winds will remain breezy through
the afternoon. As the cold front passes through, expect a wind shift
to the west before becoming northwesterly. A few showers and maybe
an isolated rumble of thunder may be possible along the front.

Monday starts off cool with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Cooler,
more seasonable air will be in place, with highs mainly in the 60s.
A shortwave trough with some return flow moisture will move across
the region in the afternoon, bringing a low but non-zero chance for
a few showers.

Tuesday temperatures remain cool, with the northern part of the area
struggling into the mid to upper 50s. Another shortwave moves in
bringing additional low-end PoPs to the area.

Wednesday, the pattern shifts with a ridge building over Iowa and
Minnesota and a deepening trough to the west of the Four Corners.
Warmer temperatures are in the forecast, with temperatures
rebounding into the 70s for many areas. A few low 80s may be
possible for areas along the Kansas-Nebraska border. Showers may be
possible in some locations.

Heading into Thursday, the trough shifts east over the Central High
Plains. Models are showing the potential for a closed low to develop
and move across the Dakotas and Canada while the trough lifts to the
northeast, into the forecast area. After afternoon highs in the 70s
and 80s on Thursday, another cool down ensues for Friday into the
weekend. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
with Thursday showing the best chances (20-50%).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. The primary concern will be a cold front pushing through
the area, veering winds from southerly to northerly with its
passage. As of 6 PM, the front has already pushed through KOFK
and is beginning to approach KOMA and KLNK. Winds at all
terminals will remain at 12-18 kts, with gusts reaching 22-27
kts through the frontal passage. Cloud cover will increase with
the frontal passage, with a broken to overcast cloud deck at
FL060-120.

Winds will gradually calm behind the front, dipping
below 12 kts by 06-08Z. Isolated showers are possible (15%
chance) this evening, primarily at KOMA and KLNK. However, this
chance has not be included in the TAFs at this time due to the
low confidence in coverage. Amendments will be made if needed.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...Wood