708
FXUS63 KOAX 041110
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will be on the increase this morning (30-60% chance
  across northeast Nebraska, 60-90% chance along and south of
  I-80).

- Shower chances peak to 60-90% late this afternoon and evening
  across our far north as a front moves through before ending
  early Saturday morning. Minor snowfall accumulations are
  possible near the South Dakota border (80% chance of up to a
  tenth of an inch), but minimal impacts are expected.

- Quiet weather continues into next week with minimal PoP
  chances Tuesday night into Wednesday (15-25% chance) as a
  warming trend takes shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/

8z radar imagery from KOAX shows an area of showers across far
northwestern portions of our service area early this morning. Much
of this activity is driven by a low to mid level shortwave evident
between 700-500 mb over western Nebraska coupled with weak warm air
advection. Much of this is not hitting the ground as of 8z,
primarily due to a pocket of dry air seen from RAP BUFKIT soundings
between 600-700 mb. Saturation will eventually be achieved across
northeast Nebraska as we get closer toward 12z, and with the forcing
from the wave moving eastward, this will result in 30-60% PoP
chances there through the noon hour today. A baroclinic zone seen
across eastern Kansas toward Missouri and Illinois will continue
pushing northward this morning and provide thermodynamic forcing
across southern portions of our forecast area. The forcing from the
baroclinic zone coupled with low level moisture transport from the
southeast will result in a secondary area of rain showers across our
southern half of the CWA this morning into the late afternoon hours
(PoPs peak here at 60-90% mainly along and south of I-80).

By mid-afternoon, a secondary 500 mb wave swings southward from
Saskatchewan toward North Dakota. At the surface, a frontal boundary
draped from Manitoba southwestward through the Dakotas will
also be on our doorstep. These disturbances will provide
additional lift, increasing PoPs to 60-90% across our far
northwest service area through Friday evening. As the front
moves to the southeast, PoP chances will decrease and exit our
area completely by early Saturday morning. A few short range
ensemble members have hinted at some very minor snow
accumulations across our far north late tonight/early Saturday
morning, primarily near the South Dakota border. Around 80% of
the 00z HREF ensemble members hint of at least a tenth of an
inch of snow across our far north given temperatures do cool to
below freezing. So, some snow is definitely not out of the
question tonight across our northern service area, but
accumulations will be light with minimal impacts expected.

Highs for today will be cool in the mid 40s north to low 50s south.
Winds will also be breezy late tonight into tomorrow morning as the
front passes through, anywhere from 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph. Saturday will be slightly cooler due to the passage of the
front with highs in the upper 40s to near 50F with breezy
conditions.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/

Pleasant conditions are in store for Sunday as highs reach the upper
50s to low 60s areawide under mostly sunny skies and light winds.
Sunday will also see the 500 mb longwave trough over the
California/SW US fuse together with the secondary trough/closed low
feature seen over the Hudson Bay. These features will result in a
shortwave swinging down over the Minnesota/Wisconsin area Monday
morning, dragging along a sfc cold front across a large portion of
the Northern/Central Plains. Precip chances are very low at this
time (<10% chance), so only expecting some mid to high level clouds
Monday with cooler temperatures. 1000-500 mb thermal ridging will
enter Nebraska and western Iowa late Tuesday and persist through
Thursday. This ridging will result in temperatures warming up into
the low to mid 70s as seen from the NBM extended forecast. Precip
chances look minimal for next week, with Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning being our next best chance (15-25%) as a weak
shortwave moves across Nebraska and Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Scattered light showers are forecast to move into the area
today with the best chances at KOFK this afternoon and evening.
Will include a few hour period of -SHRA at KLNK this afternoon,
but keep KOMA dry. Rain could briefly change to light snow
before ending at KOFK tonight. However, confidence in that
scenario is too low to include in the forecast. Ceilings will
correspondingly lower with prevailing VFR conditions this
morning becoming MVFR at KOFK and KLNK this afternoon, and not
until this evening at KOMA. A period of IFR ceilings appears
possible at KOFK this evening. East or southeast winds at less
than 12 kt will switch to north this evening before increasing
to 13-18 kt with gusts of 24-28 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo/Mead
AVIATION...Mead