297
FXUS63 KOAX 072331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and warm today with high fire danger for parts of
  northeast Nebraska.

- Rain chances increase tonight through Saturday night. The
  highest chance of precipitation, 60 to 90%, for northeast
  Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Light snow may mix in
  Saturday evening, but no impacts are expected.

- Significantly colder temperatures are to be expected on Sunday
  and Monday. Morning temperatures in the teens and low 20s with
  afternoon highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s are anticipated.
  Wind chills may be as low as the single digits during the
  morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecasts with only minor adjustments being made. This afternoon
will be the last of the warm weather for the time-being with sunny
skies pushing temperatures into the 60s. A breezy northwest wind is
resulting in high fire danger for parts of northeast Nebraska
though. A leading shortwave trough passed through the region this
morning. While little impact was felt for our region today, this
system is pushing colder air closer to our area into portions of
South Dakota and Minnesota ahead of tomorrow`s system.

Precipitation chances begin to increase tonight as our next shortwave
trough begins to influence the region. Rain chances begin across
northeast Nebraska before spreading southeast through the morning
hours. This activity remains primarily rain, but a few snow flakes
could briefly mix in around sunrise near the South Dakota border.
Otherwise, a cold rain will start the day. A low pressure system
takes shape south of the I-80 corridor during the morning and
afternoon. This low pressure is expected to further support rain
with the highest chance, 60 to 90%, expected across northeast
Nebraska and west-central Iowa. The areas that receive the most
rainfall and cloud cover may struggle to get out of the lower 40s as
a result through Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, slightly drier
conditions and perhaps a peak of sun pushes temperatures into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

By Saturday evening, the low pressure will be kicked off to the east
as a trailing shortwave trough begins to swing across the area. This
causes temperatures to plunge, especially after sunset. Light snow
will begin to mix in shortly after sunset across portions of
northeast Nebraska. As we head into the late evening, light snow may
begin to overspread the Omaha Metro and I-80 corridor. Southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa may see a few snow flakes after
midnight. While wintry precipitation is expected, overall amounts
should remain low. As the colder airmass overspreads the area, so to
will a drier airmass. This will greatly limit the amount of
precipitation and coupled with warm ground temperatures, little to
no impacts are expected at this time.

By Sunday morning, the area will have dried out, but the cold will
set in. A gusty northwest wind with morning temperatures in the
upper teens and lower 20s will make it feel like the single digits
at times. Temperatures struggle to climb into the 30s during the
afternoon. The gusty winds subside by Sunday night, but this does
little to help with the cold. Clear skies and light winds by Monday
morning result in excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures start
out mainly in the teens to near 20 with wind chills in the single
digits once again. Continued sunshine through the afternoon aids in
pushing high temperatures back into the 40s on Monday.

After Monday, an amplified blocking pattern takes shape. A
pronounced mid-level ridge over the Great Plains pushes our
temperatures back above normal by Tuesday. Upper 50s and lower 60s
with plenty of sun and dry weather can be anticipated each afternoon
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions start out the TAF period this evening, with winds
slowly shifting northerly, then shifting easterly overnight.
In addition to the shifting winds, a weather system will be
moving in tomorrow morning by 12z, affecting KOFK and KOMA while
missing KLNK. MVFR to IFR conditions will accompany most of the
showers that move through with the rain, with a few flakes
possibly mixing in with the rain (30% chance). Another round of
rain showers will try to swing through the area during the mid-
afternoon hours, bringing sporadic rain and brief bouts of MVFR
ceilings as clouds go from SCT to BKN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Petersen