143
FXUS63 KOAX 222139
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
339 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and snow showers will possible through the evening.
  Snowfall totals are expected to range from nothing to a trace
  to a few tenths of an inch.

- Temperatures will increase into this weekend with highs
  generally in the 30s. Highs in the 40s are likely by the
  start of next week.

- No additional precipitation chances are currently in the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

KOAX radar shows scattered snow showers across the area today
which have taken on a convective look to them over the past two
hours. Latest forecast soundings (RAP/HRRR) show less than 100
J/kg of CAPE, but it`s almost exclusively in the mostly
saturated dendritic growth zone (5-6kft). As a result, snow
showers have reduced visibility to under 2 miles at times. These
showers are likely to remain on the western half of the CWA
this evening where the vorticity is highest and the CAPE remains
through about sunset. Any accumulations are still expected to
remain under an inch. Expect the last of the straggling flurries
to end by 10pm.

As skies continue to clear tonight winds will slow by a few
knots, but remain quick out of the northwest at 10-20 mph.
Temperatures overnight will be cold with single digits (north of
I-80) and teens for AM lows. Thursday morning wind chills will
range from near zero in the southeastern most tier of Nebraskan
counties to near ten below closer to Sioux City.

.THURSDAY...

The one hiccup in the forecast? Our temperatures will slip on
Thursday with robust cold air advection behind the cold front
that passes through the area early in the morning. Bone dry air
will push dewpoints close to zero and highs will be relegated to
the lower-20s. RH values will slip below 40% for the first time
in a while for many locations. This is why January and February
are "bloody nose season".

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

As the H5 trofing moves east on Friday, the surface high behind
its attendant cold front slides far enough southeast that
southerly return flow will begin the long process of pushing
our temperatures out of the cellar. Friday will start with lows
near ten and wind chills near zero, but with a warm front
pushing in from the west, temps will climb high enough to melt
some of the minor amounts of snow in the area. Highs may manage
40s west of the Missouri River which would be above normal
temperatures for late January. Temps remain steady through the
weekend with near zonal flow at the upper levels.

.NEXT WEEK...

The entire forecast is dry from tonight through early next week
- at least for now - but a chance for precip develops on days
  eight and nine with a cut-off low developing in the Desert
  Southwest ejecting northwest towards the lower Missouri River
  Valley. If your lawn is in need of some moisture or your kids
  in need of some sledding, that`s what I`d pin my hopes on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Primarily VFR flight categories are reported across the area
as of 1130 AM with a few upper-end MVFR cigs reported in the
northwestern portions of the forecast area where some light snow
and flurries are reported. Most locations will have a threat of
20% chance of snow over most of the next 24 hours. I have
generally not included its mention in the TAF due to low
confidence on location and timing, but have maintained two hour
windows of TEMPO groups for -SN early this afternoon at OFK and
OMA based on current radar trends.

Otherwise, expect a lower-end VFR ceiling through much of the
TAF period with a generally slow clearing trend expected.
Through it all , northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots will be
common with gusts of 20-30 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen