875
FXUS63 KOAX 191052
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
552 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread shower chances return to the region Sunday, with no
  severe weather expected.

- Our active pattern continues as a front moves across the area
  mid-week.

- Cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s hold on today and
  Sunday, warming back into the 70s for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to feature a
positively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Four
Corners Region northeast towards the Great Lakes, serving as the
western periphery for a similarly oriented frontal system that
powers convection across Texas and the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Looking locally behind the frontal system, high pressure is
expected to shift eastward and increase its influence on the
area while showers waft to the south of the area across Kansas
and Missouri. Cloud cover today should begin shifting southeast
over the course of the morning hours, leaving much of the area
with sunny skies alongside high temperatures that reach the
lower 60s. Lighter winds throughout the day should also keep
those temperatures from feeling too chilly, with things coming
together to result in a great spring day to be outside.

Sunday and Beyond:

By early Sunday, the base of the aforementioned longwave trough will
have sheared off from the departing northern section, with the base
beginning to eject from the TX/NM area while the northern section
moves across and exits New England. We`ll see the base deepen and
negatively tilt over the course of the day, bringing strong mid-
level height falls area-wide while more dynamic low-level forcing in
the form of frontogenesis and focused warm air advection stick to
the southern and eastern sections of the forecast area. Models
depict scattered showers beginning to move into southeast Nebraska
as early as 5 AM Sunday, building farther north and becoming more
continuous through the mid-to-late morning and early afternoon.
There is some question as to how quickly things move northward,
where the deformation band of the rainfall is depicted in the HRRR
all the way north to Pierce and Wayne Counties by noon while
the WRF-ARW struggles to reach north of the Platte River at that
same time. Nonetheless, we`re on track for steady, stratiform
rainfall with a few rumbles of thunder that farmers and lawn-
owners have been hoping for. Expect rain to taper off quickly
after midnight as the main guts of the system shoot off to the
northeast, leaving us with clearing skies and lows falling into
the upper 30s to just over 40.

For the back half of the forecast area, we`ll see the deep, dramatic
troughs and mid/upper lows that we have been seeing over the past
few days for more subtle waves and fronts that move through the
increasingly zonal mid/upper flow. Temperatures will see a
rebound into the 70s for the remainder of the work week, and
rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday alongside a weak
cold front that pushes through the area. That cold front should
stall out south of the forecast area Wednesday before edging
slightly northward into southern Nebraska Thursday, bringing
increasingly widespread rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder.
Ensemble ML guidance is more optimistic Wed/Thu regarding
severe chances with the ECMWF solution that features dewpoints
getting about 10 degrees higher across south-central Nebraska
with a less dramatic difference over the eastern portion of the
state. Soundings largely depict an elevated, skinny CAPE profile
that jumps off from about 600 mb, with the main storm threat
being wind and hail. Friday should see decreased activity,
owing to the now more southerly front that helped showers and
storms the previous two days, making for another potentially
nice day to be outside as highs hit the 70s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A quiet TAF period is on tap, with VFR conditions expected as
current mid/high clouds continue moving east. Winds that start
the day largely out of the north will turn easterly by 00z, and
will remain light at less than 15 kts area-wide.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen