149
FXUS63 KOAX 092058
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
358 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm weather expected through the work week, with highs
  in the 60s or 70s every day but Tuesday (40s and 50s).

- Very warm, dry, and windy weather on Monday will lead to very
  high to extreme fire danger.

- A strong weather system brings precipitation chances (60-80%) and
  strong winds back to the area Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to feature the broad
ridge that has been bringing warm temperatures to the area while a
sheared-out and opening shortwave continues scooting along the Gulf
Coast. Temperatures have shot up into the 60s for the entire area,
including parts of northeast Nebraska that has recently melted its
snow. Winds have been relatively light despite the strong mixing,
and the downslope nature of the westerly winds has only further
pushed temperatures upward in tandem with the incoming ridge.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid 30s and should make
for an even warmer starting point for tomorrow.

To start the work week will be a gusty and very warm forecast, where
both Omaha and Lincoln are forecast to either tie or break high
temperature records (Lincoln`s record being 78 and Omaha`s 77
respectively). Peeling back the layers of the possible outcomes,
bias-corrected data is more aggressive with the heat compared to
some of the raw input, with the NBM being close to the bottom 25% of
the possible scenarios temperature for the area. We`ve leaned on the
warmer, more mixed, and therefore more gusty scenario to sound the
alarm for extreme fire danger for much of the area. Recent
coordination with fuels experts has indicated to us that the recent
moisture will have very little impact on how easily fuels will burn,
making gusts of 30-35 mph and minimum RH values of 15-25% during the
afternoon hours. Fire that do ignite will be extremely difficult to
control so avoiding any activity that could lead to sparks is
recommended. A wind shift will come through overnight as a dry
cold front passes through to shift wind directions as well.

Tuesday and Through Thursday:

With the overnight passage of the cold front, we`ll have our highs
knocked back down into the 50s. We`ll see the area go through
another stair-step warming pattern just like we experienced starting
last Friday, only temperatures warm to the 60s Wednesday, followed
by 70s Thursday. Though the signal isn`t as strong for fire weather
Thursday, we should still see a areas of very high fire danger
thanks to continued dry weather and winds gusting to 25 mph.

Friday and Beyond:

The next big weather-maker arrives Friday as a deepening trough
triggers lee cyclogenesis before negatively tilting and ejecting
through the forecast area. Significant spread continues to exist
with the system in it`s orientation and ejection speed but there
area a few things that look like very good bets. As the system
arrives, it will continually be deepening and further ramping up
winds ahead and behind it via extremely strong pressure gradient
forces. Winds Friday look potentially Wind Advisory-worthy with
gust potential of 45 mph+, while Saturday looks even stronger
at potentially 50+ mph. Next on the table are thunderstorm
chances Friday afternoon/evening, where both EPS and GEFS ML
guidance have eastern portions of the forecast area clipped by
severe thunderstorm probabilities. Whatever does form will
likely be clustered and messy in nature, but it`s hard to say
what exact hazards we`d see with the timing spread as it
currently stands. Next is the precipitation that will accompany
the backside of the system, which will be a mix of rain and snow
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will be topping out in the 40s,
with most of the area hanging onto temps above freezing through
9 PM, keeping most of anything from sticking. A conditional
point of this weather system will be the orientation of the dry
slot, which could facilitate extreme fire danger for a short
period of time. Until things come together a little bit more,
we`ll hold off for now on getting too excited about that
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Winds haven`t picked up speed too much so far this afternoon,
but are expected to top out at just over 10 kts with only a few
high clouds wafting through. Overnight, winds will change from
westerly to south-southwesterly and weakening to under 5 kts
before increasing in speed 16z onward tomorrow morning with
gusts of 20-25 kts arriving as well. Models show low-end chances
(10% chance) at fog north of KOMA, but the signal is even
weaker than this morning`s odds and won`t be included in the
TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ016-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen