285
FXUS63 KOAX 071125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
525 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today and tonight with highs in the 50s and
  lows in the 30s.

- Friday afternoon into Saturday will have periods of rain
  (70-90% chance) for most everyone in the area, with total rain
  amounts of 0.50" to 0.75" being most common.

- Temperatures (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s) will be
  common through the coming week, all above seasonable normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Quite weather is expected today and tonight in advance of the
next chance of precipitation that is expected Friday night into
Saturday. There are quite a bit of clouds out there now, but
some of that should scatter out during the day, with high
temperatures expected to climb into the middle 50s, a few
degrees above normal. And then mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies can be expected overnight.

There is a closed upper level low that is digging across the 4
corners region. This begins to slowly shift eastward early
Friday, and the upper level diffluence pattern will begin to
overspread the area Friday Friday afternoon into Saturday. This
could result in thickening clouds Friday with at least a chance
of showers by Friday afternoon, with rain becoming widespread
Friday night and continuing through Saturday. During this time,
we`ll see rain chances increase into the 70-90% range, and then
eventually ending by daybreak Sunday. There will be a
substantial dry slot wrapping around the closed low which should
help shut the precipitation off from south to north.

Fortunately, temperatures are warm enough with this system that
it should just be rain for our area, and while there`s about 10%
chance of thunder in southeast NE early Saturday morning, the
better instability looks to remain to our south across KS and
MO. Storm total rainfall amounts are averaging one half to three
quarters of an inch of rain, with around an inch forecast in
portions of south central NE. It will be welcome rainfall
considering the severe drought that continues across the region.

NBM still has dry weather for the the area for Sunday, Monday,
and Tuesday with well above normal temperatures in the upper 50s
Sunday, and then in the lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday. There
is another big upper level trough forecast to move through the
area by the middle of next week. The new 00Z ECMWF does now
bring through the area on Tuesday, but GFS holds off until
Wednesday, so confidence in the timing of the next chance of
rain next week is low at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center long range forecasts for the 6-14
day period during the middle of November still calls for a high
chance of above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Dealing with a mix of TAF cigs and visibility across the area
today with cigs as low as 200 ft AGL and visibility dipping as
low as 1 mile. Model guidance has struggled with its
development, so has been little help in forecasting its
dissipation. Confidence is low in timing as a result, but have
based today`s timing on yesterday`s fog and low cigs
dissipation.

Expect winds to primarily remain out of the north
northwest through the day.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen