656
FXUS63 KOAX 161852
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
152 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds gusting up to 25 to 40 mph could heighten fire
  danger in dry fields this afternoon and evening.

- A chance (maximum PoPs of 30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
  tonight into Friday night, with an additional round of showers
  (15-25% PoPs) possible in northeast Nebraska Saturday into
  Saturday night.

- Becoming windy Saturday afternoon into evening, with patchy
  frost possible in northeast Nebraska on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today through Friday...

A few lines of isolated showers and storms developed over central
and northeast Nebraska this morning, in a region of steep midlevel
lapse rates, ahead of an approaching surface trough and cold front.
Temperatures had reached the upper 70s and low 80s by 2PM this
afternoon. Winds became gusty over northeast Nebraska by late
morning, with the strongest winds reaching speeds up to 25 to 40
mph. While relative humidity values are only expected to dip to 35
to 45 percent this afternoon, the combination of very dry
crops/fuels and gusty winds could lead to pockets of Very High Fire
Danger this afternoon and evening. Any threat of rapid fire spread
should diminish with weakening winds after sunset this evening.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to push eastward this
evening and overnight with the advancing surface features. Showers
will continue to fester into Friday, as the cold front finally
passes through. Generally light rain showers are expected on Friday,
but a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. While unlikely, an
isolated strong storm can`t be completely ruled out with the final
push of the boundary across far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa.
However, general model consensus seems to indicate that the front
will likely move through too quickly to cause much trouble, keeping
any severe chances off to our southeast Friday. Unfortunately,
rainfall amounts still look to be on the low side today through
tomorrow, with event totals generally less than 0.1" expected.
Temperatures will dip behind the front Friday, reaching the low and
mid 70s across the majority of the forecast area.

Saturday and Beyond...

Cooler air will filter into the region Saturday, as the large scale
trough driving the cold front dips through the Central Plains. Highs
on Saturday will range from the mid 60s over northeast Nebraska to
the low 70s across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa.

A region of strong vorticity will push through with the western edge
of the upper trough, giving another 15 to 25 percent chance for some
precipitation Saturday evening. The highest chances will be limited
to far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa.

Breezy northwest winds will pull in the coldest air of the season,
so far, Saturday night. By early Sunday morning, most locations
along and south of I-80 will dip into the lower 40s. Farther north,
lows could drop into the mid 30s, potentially leading to isolated
areas of patchy frost.

Another ridge develops early next week, allowing temperatures to
bounce back into the mid to upper 60s Sunday and low 70s Monday,
before the next trough drives into the region from the Pacific
Northwest. Moisture appears to be pretty limited with this next
wave, precluding any significant rain chances through the middle of
next week. Temperatures will likely remain in the 60s, as a series
of quick hitting ridges and troughs roll through the nation`s
midsection. Moisture struggles to return to the region through the
upcoming week, leading to very little chance for any measurable
rainfall with the passing waves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Southerly winds have begun to gust ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expect speeds of 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 30 to 40
kts possible this afternoon and evening. The strongest winds
being over northeast Nebraska. A few showers and perhaps rumble
of thunder will be possible ahead of the front. While coverage
will only span narrow areas, the best chance for rain will be at
KOFK between 04-08Z this evening. The best chance for precip at
KLNK and KOMA will be from 08-10Z, however confidence remains
too low to include a mention at this time. Winds will diminish
shortly after sunset, with LLWS increasing at KOMA and KLNK
between 04Z and 12Z. Winds will be lighter, 12kts or less, and
become southwesterly through Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG