033
FXUS63 KOAX 040949
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
449 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance (20%) of spotty storm exists this afternoon before
  more widespread thunderstorms move in from west to east this
  evening (6 PM-12 AM). A few may become strong to severe, with
  damaging winds (60-70 mph) and locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances return to southeast NE and southwest IA Saturday
  afternoon, with a 5-10% chance of strong to severe storms.

- Daily storm chances persist Sunday evening through the work
  week. Severe weather potential remains on the lower end,
  though repeated rounds of rainfall could be flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a mid- to upper-level ridge
centered over the south-central CONUS, with its axis just east of
the area. Meanwhile, an incoming shortwave disturbance is
deamplifying and lifting northeast from the Four Corners region. At
the surface, and associated trough positioned over far western NE/KS
will strengthen the pressure gradient across the region, resulting
in gusty southerly winds reaching 25-30+ mph this afternoon. These
gusty southerly winds will help transport warm, moist air
northward, supporting seasonably warm highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Increasing cloud cover will accompany this moist
advection, while dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to
another humid day. Although heat index values may rise into the
mid 90s, breezy conditions should offer some relief.

The main concern today centers around thunderstorm potential, which
could impact outdoor holiday plans. A few isolated, diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms may develop between 1-5 PM, though
widespread activity is unlikely due to limited destabilization
from increasing cloud cover (PoPs ~20%). A better chance for
thunderstorms arrives later this evening into the overnight
period as the surface trough advances eastward. A line of
scattered to broken convection is expected to initiate across
west-central NE in the 2-5 PM timeframe, progressing eastward
into the western portion of the forecast area between 5-9 PM.
These storms will likely weaken as they approach the NE/IA
border in the 8 PM-12 AM timeframe. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible, though the overall severe threat
remains limited given modest instability (MUCAPE up to 1500
J/kg) and weak shear (15-25 kts of bulk shear). Damaging wind
gusts (up to 60-70 mph) will be the primary hazard with any
stronger storms. SPC continues to highlight eastern NE in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. While storms
will diminish in intensity overnight, scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms are expected to persist through much of
the overnight period before clearing from west to east during
the morning hours.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern, as the environment
features PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.00", above the 90th
percentile of KOAX sounding climatology for early July. Long, skinny
CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths of 3-4 km will support efficient
rainfall processes. WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

Storm activity will gradually taper off Saturday morning, with cloud
cover beginning to break up from west to east during the early
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to rebound into the upper
80s. A cold front associated with the departing disturbance will
drop southward through the area by Saturday afternoon, extending
from eastern NE northeast into IA and WI. Additional thunderstorm
chances return Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across
southeast NE and southwest IA along the advancing front. A few
strong to severe storms will again be possible, supported by MLCAPE
values of 2000-2500 J/kg. However, weak shear (~20 kts of bulk
shear) will limit storm organization. Damaging wind gusts (up to 60-
70 mph) and hail (up to 1") will be the primary threats as storms
track southward into the evening.

Long Term (Sunday and Beyond)

Heading into the latter half of the weekend and beyond, the overall
pattern remains largely unchanged. A mid-level ridge will
persist over the south-central CONUS, while generally zonal to
northwesterly mid- to upper-level flow dominates across the
region, allowing for a series of embedded shortwave disturbances
to move through during the upcoming week. Sunday is expected to
remain mostly dry, with seasonable highs in the 80s before
showers being to approach from the west during the evening
hours.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period should
remain near climatological normals, with daytime highs generally in
the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. On-and-off storm chances
return Monday and continue through the work week as the
aforementioned cold front stall and transitions into a stationary
front. This front is expected to oscillate north and south across
the forecast area, acting as a focus for periodic convection.

While confidence remains low in the timing and specific details of
any hazardous weather during this extended time frame, a few strong
to severe storms can`t be ruled out on any given day. No single day
looks like a slam dunk for severe weather, though GEFS and ECMWF
ensemble-based machine learning guidance highlights a 5-10%
probability for severe weather for the area throughout much of the
week. In addition, multiple round of heavy rainfall cloud lead to
localized flooding concerns. PoPs generally remain in the 20-
40% range each day through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are favored at least into the afternoon.
Southerly winds will increase in speed through the morning to
sustained values of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25-30 kts. A few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible (20% chance) in the
afternoon (19-22Z), though confidence is low in coverage so this
potential has not been included in the TAFs at this time. A
line of widespread thunderstorms will work into the terminals
from west to east after 00Z, impacting all terminals into the
evening and overnight hours. Patchy MVFR conditions will be
possible with these thunderstorms as well as isolated strong
wind gusts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood