673
FXUS63 KOAX 072318
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
518 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-30% chance of light snow is expected across northeast
  Nebraska into west-central Iowa early Saturday morning, with
  freezing drizzle transitioning to a wintry mix likely (60%
  chance) across much of the rest of eastern Nebraska and
  southwest IA. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
  light ice accumulations.

- Strong northwesterly winds will follow the wintry
  precipitation as it moves out, gusting to 30-40 mph Saturday
  afternoon.

- Widespread snow chances (50-80%) return late Monday afternoon
  into Tuesday. Areas near the Nebraska/Kansas border have the
  best chances to reach over two inches of snow.

- Cooldown expected Tuesday-Thursday with highs in the teens and
  20s and lows in the single digits above and below 0.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

This afternoon - Saturday:

We`re starting to see increasing clouds across southeast
Nebraska ahead of an approaching system developing across
southeastern Colorado this afternoon. Enhanced isentropic
upglide in the northeast quadrant of the low as it passes to our
south will bring another round of freezing drizzle overnight
tonight to much of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Far
northeastern Nebraska will be the exception where another
system clipping from the north and colder temperature profiles
could bring a dusting of snow. Higher impacts are expected
across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa where up to 0.1
inch of ice could accumulate, but more likely a range of 0.03 to
0.08. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.
There will be just enough ice to make untreated surfaces very
slick, so be careful when you step out the door overnight into
Saturday morning as well as on the roads. Temperatures overnight
will fall into the upper teens to upper 20s by Saturday
morning.

Good news is precip will clear the area by 10 AM with clearing
skies through the afternoon. This will allow temperatures to
rise above freezing across most of our area melting off any ice.

Sunday and beyond:

The upper-level stays zonal Sunday into early next week with a
strong, merged polar and subtropical jet. We`ll see a weak
shortwave disturbance move through Saturday night into Sunday
bringing cloud cover back in which will hold through much of the
day on Sunday. This will help keep temperatures a couple degrees
cooler Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid-30s.

Going into next week, we see the upper-level trough currently
holding stationary off the coast of Oregon and Washington
finally push into the CONUS, bringing a more significant system
in Monday night into Tuesday. There`s still some uncertainty in
the exact track of this surface low, but it does look like we
could see some accumulating snow, especially across southeast
Nebraska where the highest chances are.

Cooler air moves back in behind this low as the upper-level
trough moves through, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the
single digits to upper teens. We`ll see another low move across
Kansas to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing
another chance for some accumulating snow, especially to
southeast Nebraska. The heavier snow from this second system
looks likely to be down in Kansas and Missouri.

Active weather may continue through the end of the week as
another trough appears to move in right as the midweek system
moves off to the east. Temperatures will hold on the cooler
side.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The primary challenges this forecast period are the timing and
duration of MVFR ceilings and -FZDZ. Latest surface observations
and satellite data indicate MVFR ceilings (FL025-030) spreading
north through portions of south-central NE and eastern KS. With
the onset of nightfall, those clouds are likely to advance north
more rapidly, reaching the terminal location in the 03-05z
timeframe. With the lowering ceilings, the potential for -FZDZ
will increase, especially at KOMA and KLNK. Gusty southeast
winds are expected to decrease to below 12 kt in the next hour
or so before switching to northwest Saturday morning. The
northwest winds will subsequently increase Saturday with
sustained speeds of 20 kt and gusts to 30 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Saturday for NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Saturday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead