267
FXUS63 KOAX 102333
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, mixed-precipitation is possible (30-40% PoPs) near the
  SD border into west-central IA late tonight into Thursday
  morning. Minor ice accumulation could lead to minor travel
  impacts (10-20% chance).

- Confidence is increasing (30-50% PoPs) in another round of
  light snow in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa late
  Friday night and Saturday. There is a 20-50% chance of minor
  travel impacts in those areas.

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning
  before warming again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Tonight and Thursday:

Mid-level heights are slowly building across the northern and
central Plains this afternoon with that process continuing into
tonight ahead of a low-amplitude disturbance that will move
through the northern Plains Thursday. In the low levels, a
surface ridge axis currently extending from the central Dakotas
into the mid-MO Valley will build east of the area this evening
with a warm-advection regime overspreading the area tonight
into Thursday. Lift tied to that process will promote top-down
saturation with a chance (15-25%) of light snow or flurries (or
a very low probability of freezing sprinkles) developing across
our western counties between 8 PM and midnight.

Overnight into Thursday morning, the sustained warm advection
will support the development of an above-freezing, warm nose in
the 3-5 kft layer, which would result in the transition of any
light snow to light freezing rain. The best potential for that
occurrence (30-40% PoPs) is along the SD border into west-
central IA where this forecast update will indicate the
potential for a few hundredths of ice accumulation. Currently,
there is a 10-20% chance of minor travel impacts in those areas.
We will continue to monitor model and observational trends for
the potential necessity of a Winter Weather Advisory later
tonight.

Any lingering, light precipitation is expected to end Thursday
afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the
far southwest part of our area to low 30s in the far northeast.


Friday through Saturday night:

A surface cold front is expected to push south through the area
Thursday night ahead of a broad, Arctic high that will build
from the northern High Plains into the mid-MO Valley during this
time period. Aloft, another clipper system is forecast to move
through the northern Plains and upper Midwest Saturday with an
associated zone of mid-level frontogenesis supporting the
development of a snow band from the Dakotas into IA. Current
model solutions indicate the northern part of our area in the
southern fringe of the snow band with this forecast update
increasing PoPs to 30-50% Saturday. Snowfall amounts remain
uncertain with the EPS and GEFS indicating generally a 20-40%
chance of 3+" along the SD border into northwest IA. Accordingly,
the probabilistic WSSI shows up to a 20-50% chance of minor
travel impacts (i.e., snow-coverd roads) from northeast NE into
west-central IA. Winds are expected to remain relatively light,
which should limit the amount of blowing snow.

As alluded to above, temperatures will turn colder with highs
in the 20s and 30s Friday falling into the teens and 20s
Saturday. Some single digits are even possible in our far
northern counties. The coldest temperatures are expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning when readings will range
from the single digits above zero in southeast NE to as low
as -10 in the Onawa, IA and Harlan, IA areas. Associated wind
chills will be below zero with the lowest readings of -10 to
-20 forecast in northeast and east-central NE into west-central
and southwest IA.


Sunday through Tuesday:

The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
suggesting the progression of a flattening, mid-level ridge
into the northern and central Plains Sunday into Monday. By
Tuesday, there is some model signal that a low-amplitude
disturbance will move into the northern Plains. Those upper-air
developments will translate to a warmer surface pattern. We
will begin to see scouring of the Arctic air mass in our western
counties Sunday, and by Monday and Tuesday, afternoon
temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions are in place across the three terminals this
evening, with that expected to carry through the next 24 hours
as winds shift southeasterly and then back
westerly/northwesterly by the end of tomorrow. Lingering FEW clouds
at FL025 near KOMA should drift off to the east, leaving
mid/high clouds through the period, with a decaying snow band
that dries up before arriving to KOFK bringing them back down
for a little bit overnight. Additional chances for precipitation
arrive late tomorrow morning, but will stay to the north of the
TAF terminals.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen