494
FXUS63 KOAX 302335
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect another chance for snow Monday. A Winter Weather
  Advisory has been issued for parts of far southeast Nebraska
  and southwest Iowa.

- Temperatures will be mainly in the 20s and 30s for highs this
  week.

- Tuesday and Thursday morning temperatures will be particularly
  cold. Tuesday morning lows will be in the single digits above
  zero, while Thursday lows are currently forecast to be in the
  single digits below zero for most locations. Thursday morning
  apparent temperatures could dip into the negative teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Today through Monday...

A shallow, saturated, dendritic layer produced an abundance of
flurries this morning, under a layer of stratus. By noon, only minor
accumulations were reported. Temperatures remained cool atop the
blanket of fresh snowcover today. By 2 PM, most locations were still
in the teens and low 20s. Cold temperatures will persist overnight
and into Monday, with morning bus stop temperatures in the low
teens, but feeling more like the single digits above and below 0.

A mid level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Central
Plains Monday, bringing our next chance for precipitation. With
a column of cold air well established, we thankfully won`t have
to deal with multiple precipitation types. Snow will begin to
overspread the forecast area from west to east shortly after
midnight tonight, and persist through morning, before
diminishing through the afternoon. The latest model runs
continue to lightly nudge the system south, focusing the
heaviest precipitation across the southeast Nebraska/Kansas/Missouri
border region. When all is said and done, amounts will range
from around a trace to 1" north of I- 80, to 1"-3"+ along and
south of I-80. With high snow-liquid ratios, the snow should be
fairly light and fluffy. Luckily winds will be relatively weak
tomorrow, at around 5 to 10 mph out of the southwest, limiting
visibility reductions from blowing snow. With the potential for
this system to impact travelers on the morning and evening
commutes Monday, a Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted for
locations along and south of a line from Fairbury, to Nebraska
City, to Clarinda, IA. This may need to be expanded a bit
farther north if evening model runs trend up.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Dry weather returns Tuesday, under quiet northwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits Monday
night/Tuesday morning, with apparent temps dipping just below 0.
Temperatures warm slightly Tuesday afternoon, reaching the low to
mid 30s, perhaps melting a bit of the current snowcover.

Our "warm up" will be short-lived, as a cold front swings through
the central CONUS Tuesday night. Winds will swing around to the
north Wednesday, as cold air barrels into the region. Temperatures
may reach the 30s early, but fall through the afternoon. By Thursday
morning, lows will fall into the single digits below 0. This
combined with chilly north winds, will lead to wind chills in
negative teens across northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa.
A smattering of light precipitation may accompany the frontal
passage, however the better moisture profiles will remain off to our
northeast and southwest.

We will have another brief warm up Friday, before our next chance
for wintry precipitation arrives next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Generally expecting MVFR cigs to linger through the TAF period
with only occasional breaks for VFR possible this evening and
some improvement expected Monday afternoon.

Snow builds in from the southwest after midnight, pushing
visibilities into to IFR categories at times at all three TAF
sites. Confidence is highest at KOMA and KLNK and less so
farther north (KOFK). Improvement is expected by mid- day
Monday as the system pushes southeast.

Light and variable winds overnight become more organized by
Monday morning out of the south at 5-10 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
     NEZ068-088>093.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
     IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen