359
FXUS63 KOAX 050402
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1002 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 35-55 mph wind gusts expected this afternoon and evening out
  of the northwest, relaxing around 6-8 PM.

- Very cold air will pour into the area tonight with widespread
  Thursday morning wind chills below zero.

- Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend, most of the
  area seeing highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Tonight - Thursday...

Winds have kicked up across the area this morning with gusts to
40 mph at KOMA and 45 to 50 mph in northeast Nebraska. A band
of clouds over Norfolk through Oakland, NE and Pottawattamie
County in Iowa is helping to keep us from mixing down even
stronger winds so far, but as we watch these clouds break up
this afternoon we could see winds get about 5-10 mph higher.
Despite winds being out of the northwest temperatures right now
hover around 45 to 55 degrees with wind chill in the 30s to low
40s.

This evening we`ll see the 850-mb jet exit to the east allowing
winds to relax. While we won`t become calm, we`ll see winds drop
to around 10-20 mph after midnight tonight. On the back-side of
the upper-level trough exiting to our east we`ll see a Canadian
High slide south over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa bringing
in the coldest temperatures of the season so far with
temperatures dropping into the low teens to single digits by
daybreak Thursday. With winds still going 10-20 mph we`ll see
widespread wind chill below zero. With the Canadian High
becoming more centered over the Missouri River Valley we`ll see
winds become nearly calm Thursday afternoon with highs only
reaching into the 20s across most if not all of our area.

Friday - Beyond...

The Canadian High exits to our east Thursday moving us into the
southerly return flow going into Friday. This will cause
temperatures to rebound quickly with highs back in the 40s
Friday afternoon.

The upper-level blocking pattern over the Intermountain West breaks
down going into the weekend pushing the ridge east over our
area. With increasing 500-mb heights and persistent dry
southwesterly flow we`ll see quiet weather continue with
temperatures warming into the 50s and possibly low 60s Saturday
and Sunday afternoons.

A deep upper-level trough will bring back cooler weather early
next week as it kicks out the remnants of the blocking ridge.
Precip with this system looks to remain well to our southeast
with a dry air mass holding across our area. Forecast gets more
muddled going into the latter half of next week as the upper-
level pattern becomes more amplified leading to greater dissonance
in the ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing
6000-10000 ft clouds during the day Thursday. Northwest winds
may gust 20-25 kts for a few hours early in the period, but
should come down shortly after. Eventually expect southerly
winds by late afternoon/evening, but they`ll be very light.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA