751
FXUS63 KOAX 220513
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1113 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will taper off from north to south this afternoon, with
  totals generally topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the
  Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Expect a mild, dry weekend with highs in the low 60s; rain
  chances increase again Monday, peaking at 60-80%.

- Cooler weather arrives next week, with highs falling into the
  30s and low 40s by Thanksgiving.

- Monitor the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, there
  are early hints of snowfall, but confidence in timing and
  location remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Tonight through Sunday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon shows a mid-
level shortwave moving across the central Plains, with an associated
surface low over central Kansas slowly drifting east. A band of
precipitation north of the low continues to bring light rain to
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rain will steadily diminish
from north to south through the afternoon, with totals generally
topping out around 0.25-0.50" near the Nebraska-Kansas border.
Persistent cloud cover and northerly low-level flow will hold
afternoon temperatures in the chilly 40s.

Between the departing low to the south and another surface low near
the North Dakota-Canada border, a weak front will slide through
tonight into Saturday morning, shifting winds to the southwest.
Guidance does hint at the possibility for patchy fog again Saturday
morning. However, winds increase just enough behind the front with
model soundings bringing gusty winds just above the surface as
well. Therefore, any fog will likely be very patchy and
constrained to wind protected areas in southeast NE and
southwest IA.

Clearing skies and a modest pattern change will allow Saturday`s
highs to climb into the low 60s, about 10-15 degrees above the
climatological average for mid- November. Although a weak cold
front will sweep through early Sunday as the northern system
passed by, temperatures will remain largely unaffected, with
southerly flow quickly returning and highs again reaching the
low 60s. Overall, the weekend looks mild, dry and pleasant.

Monday and Beyond...

By Monday, the closed mid-level low currently positioned along the
California-Baja coast will slingshot northeast toward the region,
bringing our next chance for precipitation. PoPs move in Sunday
night and peak around 60-80% Monday morning before diminishing from
west to east through the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is
expected to fall as rain, with temperatures largely holding in the
40s and 50s. Cooler air arrives Tuesday on the backside of the
departing low, and a handful of EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members
(roughly one-eighth) suggest the potential for some light snow in
northeast NE as the system exits. At this time, the probability of
impacts appear low, but it`s something to watch. High Tuesday will
generally reach the 40s, accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds.

By midweek, a mid- to upper-level trough sweeping across the
northern Plains will send a reinforcing shot of cold air into the
region, dropping high temperatures into the 30s and low 40s through
the remainder of the work week, with overnight lows in the teens and
20s. Long-range guidance also hints at a band of light snow Thursday
into early Friday, though GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS members show
considerable spread in both placement and intensity. For now, PoPs
remain below 20%, but the situation will be monitored. A more robust
mid- to upper-level trough is expected to arrive next weekend,
bringing better chances for snow; however, ensemble solutions
continue to vary widely on where snowfall may set up. It will be a
period to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are
currently light across the area. These winds will gradually
shift around to southwesterly through the early morning,
becoming westerly by the late morning and afternoon. Wind speeds
will also increase during the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Chehak