561
FXUS63 KOAX 101045
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
545 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms will continue through 8 to 9 am across
  the region. The threat for severe thunderstorms will diminish
  by sunrise, with damaging winds of 60-80 mph possible until
  then. Flash flooding will remain possible, with rain rates of
  2 to 4 inches per hour.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms, along with flash
  flooding is possible Sunday evening into early Monday. Areas
  near and south of a Dorchester to Nebraska City in Nebraska,
  and Red Oak in Iowa may be impacted.


- Temperatures will remain in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows
  through the end of the week, with temperatures rising into the
  90s by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Today through Sunday...

Remnants of a severe MCS that moved across the forecast area
overnight, currently is exiting southwest Iowa early this
morning. Once again the CWA experienced multiple reports of 60
to 80 mph winds, along with flash flooding. The threat of severe
weather is expected to exit the CWA by 5 am. Flooding and flash
flooding will remain possible, as rain and thunderstorms linger
until mid-morning. As such, extended the flood watch for areas
north of Fairbury NE to Clarinda IA until 12 pm.

The second flood watch for Nemaha, Pawnee and Richardson
Counties in Nebraska will continue until 10 am on Monday. A
surface stationary front will linger near the Iowa-Nebraska
line through the evening hours, meanwhile the more effective H8
front will extend from a leeside low that will develop as a
disturbance rounds the base of a H5 trough anchored to H5 low
moving along the U.S. Canadian border. Storms the develop to the
lee of the Rockies expected to follow a more pronounced theta-e
axis oriented across northern Kansas, extreme southeast Nebraska
into northwest Missouri during the evening and overnight hours.
Uncertain about the severe threat, as impingement of the LLJ
likely will occur south of the forecast area. However, PWAT
remain in the 75-90 percentile for early August, thus expect
better rainfall efficiency. Cannot discount another round of
showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday, as cyclonic
flow aloft remains across the area. Expect the effective
boundaries for convective focus will remain south and east of
the area in general, thus any storms will just clip southeast
portion of CWA.

Clouds, convective debris and northeast winds will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s today, falling into
the 60s overnight.

Monday will be a near repeat, though slightly warmer
temperatures will be possible along the Nebraska-South Dakota
border where less cloud cover is expected.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Medium range models indicating a quasi-stationary trough the
will remain across the central plains Sunday and Monday will
begin to move east, with upper level riding building into the
region. This will allow a break in precipitation. East to
northeast surface flow will keep temperatures in the 80s through
mid-week. By late in the week, the upper level ridge will be
center over Kansas and Nebraska which will allow temperatures to
climb back into the 90s. A shortwave moving into the Pacific
northwest will increase the potential for nocturnal convection
in the Friday into Saturday timeframe, though the aforementioned
ridge over the southern-central plains appears to channel the
energy and may keep better storm threat north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Stratiform rain continues to slowly push east-northeast this
morning, with conditions expected to improve from the spotty
MVFR ceilings and visibilities across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa back into the VFR territory by 14z. From there,
expect northerly winds to settle in that become north-
northeasterly overnight. Just beyond the TAF period, winds are
expected to swing southerly again, with a 10-20% chance at
seeing rain mid-Monday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for NEZ066>068-078-088>090.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ091>093.
IA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Petersen