136
FXUS63 KOAX 281131
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of impactful weather are expected over the holiday
  weekend. The first will arrive later today, bringing a chance
  for some snow to the region, particularly for areas along and
  north of a line from Omaha to Atlantic.

- A second round of wintry weather will occur tonight through
  Saturday. This will include the potential for some rain or
  freezing rain, some icing, and several inches of snow. Winter
  Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning headlines are in
  place for today and tomorrow.

- Cold settles in for the rest of the weekend and the start of
  next week. Temperatures will warm up Tuesday, persisting
  through the end of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 457 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The forecast period begins with northwest flow over the Great Plains
and a developing surface low over Wyoming and Montana. Later this
morning, the low will slide south into western Nebraska,
northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas. Surface high
pressure over Texas and Louisiana will result in return flow
bringing moisture into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa through the
day. Temperatures are going to be on the cold side, with highs in
the 30s for areas along and south of Hwy 92, and struggling into the
20s for areas north. There will be increasing chances for a few snow
showers for areas along and north of I-80 this morning into the
afternoon hours. Models are showing a band of frontogenesis over
portions of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. However, soundings are
showing saturation in the mid-levels, there remains dry air at the
surface during the morning and into the afternoon. This will inhibit
some of the potential early on for snow to reach the surface. As
snow does develop and continue to fall, it should eventually start
making it to the ground. Right now, the best chance for snowfall
during the daytime hours will be for areas along and north of a line
from Omaha to Atlantic (IA).

Friday night, the surface low will slide further south into western
Kansas, before making its way across the state. As the low moves
further to the east, it will be better able to tap into warm, moist
Gulf air. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, there will
be a period of time where some rain or freezing rain may occur,
which will bring a chance for a light glaze of ice to a few
hundredths to portions of the area. As the low moves into western
Iowa Saturday morning, we will transition over to all snow.
Initially, with the potential for rain/freezing rain transitioning
to snow, SLR values are going to be lower than climatological
values, in some instances around 4:1 or 5:1. This will result in a
heavy, wet snow. We may have some issues with flash freezing on
roads which will result in slick conditions. SLR values are
expected to become a little closer to climatological values as
we get colder air coming in around the low.

Expected snow totals have gone up in some locations, particularly
heading further south toward the I-80 corridor and west. The
Winter Storm Warning was expanded to include Cedar and
Pottawattamie counties. The Winter Weather Advisory was also
expanded due to an increase in snow amounts and some concerns
about the potential for some impactful slick conditions along
the I-80 corridor. Much of the snow should exit our NEbraska
counties by Saturday evening and western Iowa by Sunday night.
There may be some potential for a bit of blowing snow, which
could also cause some travel impacts through Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the storm system will lift into the Great Lakes
region, bringing a reprieve from the wintry weather. Temperatures
will remain on the cold side, with highs struggling into the teens
and 20s. Wind chills will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday
night/Monday morning, temperatures will fall into the single digits
for most areas, with low teens possible for areas along and south of
I-80.

Monday, a shortwave will enter the region, bringing a 20-30% chance
of a few snow showers to areas along and south of a line from Omaha
to David City. Tuesday through the end of the forecast, we see a
change in the pattern with northwest flow setting up. Expect a
return to the 30s for high temperatures and the teens and 20s for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the morning and part of the
afternoon at the terminals. A winter storm will be moving into
the region today, bringing chances for some light snow showers
today. This evening into tonight, there will be a possibility
for some rain/freezing rain which will transition to snow. Some
icing may be possible and reductions to visibility are expected
heading into the latter part of the forecast period. Ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR to IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for NEZ012-015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST Saturday night for NEZ016-030-031-042>045-050>053-065-
     067.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NEZ011-017-018-032>034.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     CST Saturday night for IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW