219
AGUS74 KWCO 051504
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025

.Synopsis...
Daily rainfall possible in the Southeast and Northern Plains... Isolated
river flooding continues in the Midwest...

.Southeast...
Daily rainfall bringing the potential for flash and urban flooding is
expected through day 2 (Wed) in portions of the Southeast, including
portions of FL, GA, AL, and the Carolinas. While top-soils are variable
depending on location and streamflows are running below normal to normal
overall (USGS), soil moisture conditions will continue to increase through
the event, thus increasing the potential for localized flooding impacts as
well as a continued threat in urban areas. Rural areas may see some streams
rapidly rise and impact low water crossings and roadways. Some of these
responses may be locally considerable if rainfall rates and durations are
sufficient to overwhelm infiltration and stream routing. Given the expected
slow movement of any storms, localized flooding impacts are possible even
in areas with drier antecedent conditions.

The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) is signaling
rapid onset flooding (ROF) generally between 25-50% in areas of
central/northern GA, and northern SC. While signals are rather scattered,
localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

.Northern Plains...
Multiple days of showers and thunderstorms over the region through day 4
(Fri) will bring the potential for localized flash and urban flooding.
While rather progressive, today will likely be the heaviest rainfall totals
as 1-2" are forecast over localized portions of ND and eastern SD (WPC).
Top soils are generally dry (0-10cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) while streamflows are
normal to much above normal (USGS) suggesting some out-of-bank rises on
smaller creeks and streams are possible. Even with low daily rainfall
accumulation, spread out over multiple days, and dry antecedent conditions,
localized flooding impacts are possible.

.Midwest...
Isolated moderate river flooding from recent rainfall will persist through
late week across eastern  IA on portions of the Iowa and Wapsipincion
Rivers as water routes downstream. Widespread action to minor stage flows
will persist from southern MN into the middle Mississippi River through the
weekend.

//TMK





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