Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL
293 AGUS74 KWCO 051517 HMDNWC National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2024 .Synopsis... Tropical Depression Fourteen brings the potential for multiple days of locally heavy rainfall and flooding impacts to the Florida Peninsula... Flash flooding likely in the Mariana Islands... Flooding possible in Puerto Rico and the USVI... Lingering river flooding across the Southeast... .Discussion... Florida Peninsula... Tropical Depression Fourteen will bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall through the middle of next week as it moves across the Peninsula after crossing the Gulf of Mexico. Soil conditions are wet in portions of central and southern FL (0 - 10 cm RSM, 60-80%, NASA SPoRT) and streamflows are much above normal (USGS), suggesting that these areas are primed for at least localized impacts. The National Water Model (NWM) Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) continues to signal rapid-onset flooding potential (probabilities of 25 - 50%) from Tampa southward. Low annual-exceedance probabilities are present throughout central FL, from Tampa across the peninsula near Orlando, suggesting a higher confidence in the location of possible significant streamflows. Minor river flooding is forecast for areas surrounding Tampa and river ensemble forecasts are indicating the potential for isolated moderate river flooding. Mariana Islands... Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast this weekend as a developing tropical disturbance brings the potential for flash flooding. There is still uncertainty with this system with regards to rainfall amounts and the likelihood of impacts. Puerto Rico and the USVI... Moderate to locally heavy rainfall bringing the potential for flooding is forecast through early next week. .Southeast... Flows will continue to route downstream across the Coastal Plain of GA and the Carolinas through the weekend. The Santee River in SC and the Alapaha and Ogeechee rivers in GA will continue to rise over the next few days with crests expected this weekend at most locations. No significant precipitation over the next week should allow for unimpeded recessions of elevated rivers across the region. //Kirkpatrick $$