751
AGUS74 KWCO 141507
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025

.Synopsis...
Flash and urban flooding expected in Southern California... New and renewed
flooding potential in Colorado and New Mexico... Flash flooding possible
for Guam and Rota...

.Southern California...
Flash and urban flooding is expected today as a strong storm system brings
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region. While the rainfall
will generally be beneficial, localized downpours may still lead to
flooding in sensitive basins, urban areas, and steep terrain. The National
Water Model Short Range Forecast supports this, highlighting areas of
isolated rapid-onset flooding potential, primarily along the Transverse
Ranges to the coast. Debris flows are also possible near recently burned
areas.

.Colorado and New Mexico...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the San
Juan Mountains (CO) later today, where recent rainfall has already exceeded
4" over the weekend with another 1 - 2" since yesterday. While overall
totals will be lower than in recent days, locally torrential rain rates
from thunderstorms may lead to renewed flooding issues, particularly in
saturated terrain and along already elevated waterways. Elsewhere across
southwest CO and NM, flooding of small creeks, streams, arroyos, and
low-lying areas is possible where repeated rounds of locally heavy rainfall
occur. Flash flooding should be limited, but isolated instances may
develop, especially near recently burned areas.

.Guam and Rota...
Heavy showers and thunderstorms from a nearby tropical disturbance may
produce areas of flash flooding through late day 2 (Wed).

//Freeman

$$