985
AGUS74 KWCO 221515
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
915 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025

.Synopsis...
Freeze up and ice jam potential along rivers across the Northern and
Central US... Rainfall next week across the Lower Mississippi Valley...

.Discussion...

.Northern and Central US...
Freezing temperatures will persist through mid-week, resulting in favorable
conditions for rapid ice development on rivers and potential isolated
flooding impacts. Of greatest concern is the ice jam development that is
ongoing on the Missouri River which is driving low-flow conditions further
down in Omaha (NE). Additionally, the Rock, Fox, Des Plaines, and Kankakee
river basins in northern IL and IN are vulnerable to freeze up ice jams and
isolated flooding as well.

.Lower Mississippi Valley...
The National Water Model (NWM) Medium Range Forecast continues to indicate
the possibility of small steam rises early next week in response to
potential widespread rainfall. Forecast guidance suggests a swath of 2 - 3"
of precipitation over a 72 hour period beginning day 5 (Sun), with the
highest totals expected over the Boeuf-Tensas and Big Black-Homochitto
river basins in LA and MS. The areal coverage, and associated NWM signals,
continues to shift around due to the extended timeframe of the forecast.
Antecedent conditions are not particularly vulnerable to new flooding
impacts and several days of dry weather ahead of this rainfall should allow
for soils to recover from recent rainfall/snowmelt, further mitigating
flood potential. Due to the potential of mixed precipitation types and
forecast timing, too much uncertainty exists for any confidence in flooding
responses. The region will need to be monitored as we head through this
week.

//Bliss


$$