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AGUS74 KWCO 021251
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

UPDATE...

While moderate to locally heavy rainfall is still forecast across the
broader Gulf Coast and Southeast region this week, confidence in any
impactful flooding is low due to overall modest daily totals and generally
dry antecedent conditions. As a result, the Limited impacts selection has
been trimmed back to focus solely on southern LA where the highest rainfall
is expected.

//RMF

Previous Discussion as follows:

Isolated flooding impacts possible across the Gulf Coast into the Southeast
this week...

Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall ongoing across East TX and
portions of the Lower MS Valley (AR/LA) will continue to progress eastward
across MS, AL, and portions of the FL Panhandle and southern GA over the
next 24 hours, potentially generating isolated urban flooding impacts. The
latest guidance suggests that the heaviest rainfall will occur in southern
AL and southern GA through Tuesday, which coincides with where the driest
antecedent conditions are in place. Additionally, generally sandy soils
across southern AL, southern GA, and the FL Panhandle should provide
adequate infiltration to mitigate flooding impacts. As such, only isolated
flooding impacts are expected, primarily in urban areas and in areas of
poor drainage.

Looking ahead, additional periods of rainfall will return to the same
region on Wednesday and continue through the end of the week, with a
renewed potential for at least isolated flash and urban flooding impacts.
This will be highly dependent on how quickly soils recover following
tonight/Tuesdays rainfall, although nuisance flooding remains possible in
urban and typical flood prone areas. The current limited flood impact area
was extended across most of the Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle) and into
southern GA to account for the additional rainfall mid-week.

//JDP


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