685
AGUS74 KWCO 041504
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025

.Synopsis...
Daily rainfall possible in the Southeast and Northern Plains... Isolated
river flooding continues in the Midwest...

.Southeast...
Daily rainfall bringing the potential for flash and urban flooding is
expected through day 3 (Wed) in portions of the Southeast, including
portions of FL, GA, AL, and the Carolinas. While top-soils are generally
dry and streamflows are running below normal to normal (USGS), most
flooding impacts may be mitigated due to sandy soils, at least initially.
Soil moisture conditions will increase through the event, thus increasing
the potential for localized flooding impacts as well as a continued threat
in urban areas. Rural areas may see some streams rapidly rise and impact
low water crossings and roadways. Some of these responses may be locally
considerable if rainfall rates and durations are sufficient to overwhelm
infiltration and stream routing. Given the expected slow movement of any
storms, localized flooding impacts are not completely out of the question
even in areas with drier antecedent conditions.

The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) is signaling
rapid onset flooding (ROF) generally between 25-50% in areas of northwest
FL, central/southern GA, and southwest SC. While signals are rather
scattered, localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

.Northern Plains...
Multiple days of showers and thunderstorms over the region through day 5
(Fri) will bring the potential for localized flash and urban flooding. Top
soils are generally dry, however, localized areas within SD are wet (NASA
SPoRT). Even with low daily rainfall accumulation, spread out over multiple
days, and dry to locally wet antecedent conditions, localized flooding
impacts are possible.

.Midwest...
Isolated moderate river flooding from recent rainfall will persist through
late week across eastern  IA on portions of the Iowa and Wapsipincion
Rivers as water routes downstream. Widespread action to minor stage flows
will persist from southern MN into the middle Mississippi River through
next weekend.

//TMK





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