834
FGUS63 KMSR 231832
ESGNLM

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
132 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Manistee River
SHRM4            15.0   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boardman River
MYFM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4             7.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
STRM4             6.0   11.0   13.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231832/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Manistee River
SHRM4      11.3/   11.5/   11.9/   12.2/   12.9/   13.7/   14.0
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.5/    3.5/    3.7/    3.9/    4.2/    4.5/    4.6
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.1/    3.2/    3.3/    3.7/    4.0/    4.6/    4.9
:Rifle River
STRM4       1.6/    2.0/    2.4/    3.1/    4.3/    5.0/    5.3
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231832/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Manistee River
SHRM4       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6
:Boardman River
MYFM4       0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
:Rifle River
STRM4       0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$