455
FXUS66 KMTR 241210
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
510 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions continue today and Monday

 - Gradual cooling starts Tuesday, continues through the work week

 - Temperatures will be slightly below normal by second half of

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025
(Today and tonight)

Stratus has filled in across our area overnight, including the
valleys into interior Sonoma and southern Napa county. Our heat
products expired Saturday evening, however temperatures will
continue to be around 5 degrees above normal for interior
locations away from the influence of the marine layer this
afternoon with H85 temperatures still in the 90th percentile or
higher. Marine layer stratus will retreat but remain close to the
coast by early afternoon and begin to fill back in again early
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Not much change in the extended forecast with quiet weather and
gradual cooling through the work week. The Four Corners ridging
pattern begins to break down today allowing for troughing over the E
Pacific to influence our synoptic pattern over the next week or so.
Temperatures will return to near normal by the middle of the week,
eventually dropping slightly below normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Stratus has reached all airports (excluding APC) with MVFR to LIFR
CIGs being reported. Some fog is possible along the coastline,
particularly MRY and HAF, with highest confidence in decreases in
visibility through 16Z-17Z. Satellite shows stratus right on the
border of APC but forward progression has been slow, resulting in
decreased confidence that APC will develop IFR CIGs for a prolonged
period of time. WRF guidance shows most sites clearing between 17Z-
19Z across the interior with an early return of stratus this
evening. The marine layer is expected to deepen slightly tonight as
we see upper level ridging weakening over the Western US. This will
keep most sites MVFR-IFR tonight but coastal sites will be closer to
IFR-LIFR overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR persists through late this morning before
becoming VFR this afternoon through the early evening. Guidance
supports an early return of stratus tonight with IFR CIGs most
likely to develop. Winds remain out of the west to northwest with
gusts to around 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus has filled in over the bay which will
result in a loss of VAPs on the SFO Bridge Approach. Stratus looks
to linger slightly longer over the bay than over SFO with clearing
to take place between 16Z-18Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR-IFR CIGs continue through late
morning. Some potential for fog to develop at MRY this morning with
visibilities to improve by late morning. Opted for a slightly
optimistic TAF at MRY with a brief period of clearing between 19Z-
23Z. LAMP guidance supports MRY staying overcast throughout the
entire TAF period but WRF guidance indicates at least a brief period
of clearing is likely. Leaned more towards WRF guidance and a bit of
persistence for the MRY TAF. IFR CIGs will improve by late morning
at SNS with an early return of stratus this evening expected. Some
potential for LIFR CIGs to develop at SNS both this morning and
again tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A moderate northwest breeze and moderate seas will continue across
the coastal waters through Monday. Strong gusts are expected
Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of Point Sur and within the
northern San Francisco Bay. Small Craft Advisories are set to go
in effect this afternoon and evening for those regions. Winds
weaken by Tuesday with a gentle to moderate breeze and moderate
seas to continue through late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 448 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue Sunday with active fire
condtions continuing to be seen at the Pickett Fire on area
webcams, especially above 1500ft. Mondays forecast for our area,
including the Pickett Fire is similar to today`s, with cooler
temperatures and improved RH recovery expected to set in on
Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the work week.
Expect breezy onshore winds each afternoon and evening, becoming
light and terrain driven during the overnight hours.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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