731
FXUS66 KMTR 081805
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Gusty offshore winds continue across the region, beginning to
lessen gradually by this afternoon. Additional gusty winds
possible Saturday and early next week with quiet weather in
between.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Overall sensible weather this morning is very similar to 24 hour
hours ago. There are some small nuances/differences, but generally
clear skies, gusty offshore flow, and dry conditions. One more
notable difference this morning are the temperatures. Winds have
eased across the lower elevations leading to increased radiation
cooling overnight. Santa Rosa area for instance is calm and
yesterday they were gusting to 24 mph and as such temps are nearly
20 degrees colder this morning. Speaking of winds, valleys have
eased, but still remain gusty over the higher terrain. Offshore
gradient is still over -10mb resulting in gusts of 40-50 mph over
the higher peaks of the North Bay.

No update needed.

Weather impacts for the afternoon forecast focus will be
additional rounds of offshore flow and chilly overnight
temperatures.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Another morning of gusty NE winds across the region. Overall very
similar to yesterday morning with current gusts in the 60-70 mph
range in the highest peaks (Mt. St. Helena), and the 40-50 mph
range near Mt Diablo. Winds will continue through this morning
before gradually diminishing this afternoon as the responsible
upper low moves south and the pressure gradient over central CA
relaxes. Some of the higher terrain in the interior North Bay
could still see gusts to 40 mph tonight, but winds should be much
more tame across the rest of the Bay Area before sunset. For now,
keeping the Wind Advisory with the same expiration time of 10 AM
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Occasional gusty NE winds will likely linger into Thursday for the
high terrain. As the upper low over SoCal finally moves out into
Mexico/southern US, a more robust ridge takes over the pattern and
promotes quiet and slightly warmer conditions for Friday. Although
nice temperatures remain through the weekend, several upper level
disturbances are expected to translate into the CONUS from a very
active deep trough pattern over the Bering Sea and a stagnant
ridge over the EPac. This will very likely promote additional
bursts of offshore flow from Saturday through into the early half
of next week as these progressive upper lows back into the SW US
around the periphery of the near-stationary ridge. Some
uncertainty remains regarding the strength of any upcoming wind
event, but there are several hints that this pattern finally
breaks down around the middle of next week, promoting additional
changes in the weather and perhaps a bit of rain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Mainly offshore winds, dry conditions continuing in the 18z TAF
cycle. It`s near high confidence VFR at the area terminals for
much of the time with exception of KSTS where fog /LIFR-IFR/ may
form early Thursday morning, low confidence but did add a tempo
for 1/2 mile in fog, vertical visibility 200 feet.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. East to southeast wind near 10 knots
decreasing to light and variable late today, possibly northwest 5
to 10 knots in the evening. Light and variable wind tonight and
Thursday becoming northwest near 10 knots Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. East to southeast winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Winds east to
southeast 5 to 10 knots tonight and Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 953 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025

Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will result in periods
of offshore winds across the bays and coastal waters through late
Thursday night. On Friday the high pressure system weakens while
a low pressure trough moves eastward across the Pacific Northwest.
Surface high pressure then rebuilds over the Great Basin during
the weekend. This will bring a return of offshore winds to the
bays and coastal waters over the weekend. Seas and gusty north
winds gradually abate during the remainder of the week then
increase again over the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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