504
FXUS66 KMTR 241706
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1006 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions continue today and Monday

 - Gradual cooling starts Tuesday, continues through the work week

 - Temperatures will be slightly below normal by second half of

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025
(Today and tonight)

Stratus has filled in across our area overnight, including the
valleys into interior Sonoma and southern Napa county. Our heat
products expired Saturday evening, however temperatures will
continue to be around 5 degrees above normal for interior
locations away from the influence of the marine layer this
afternoon with H85 temperatures still in the 90th percentile or
higher. Marine layer stratus will retreat but remain close to the
coast by early afternoon and begin to fill back in again early
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 338 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Not much change in the extended forecast with quiet weather and
gradual cooling through the work week. The Four Corners ridging
pattern begins to break down today allowing for troughing over the E
Pacific to influence our synoptic pattern over the next week or so.
Temperatures will return to near normal by the middle of the week,
eventually dropping slightly below normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-MVFR at the terminals with stratus
beginning to erode. The upper-level longwave ridge will be undercut
by an upper-level shortwave trough towards the end of the TAF
period, likely deepening the marine layer and raising ceilings and
visibilities at least a little bit for tonight - thus, an
optimistic persistence forecast is on tap.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. High (80%)
confidence in a sub-VFR ceiling returning to the terminal tonight.
Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low (10%) probability for low stratus clouds
to linger across the San Mateo Bridge Approach this afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR and calm at SNS. VFR is briefly expected at both
terminals with low stratus clouds sticking close to the coast.
Higher confidence in SNS as MRY will be right on the edge of a
persistent stratus feed from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1005 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail today with
strong gusts through the San Francisco Bay and across the coastal
jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Winds diminish tonight
with a gentle breeze prevailing through Thursday. Moderate seas
will  prevail through Thursday with the exception of the northern
outer  waters where seas will be rough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 448 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue Sunday with active fire
conditions continuing to be seen at the Pickett Fire on area
webcams, especially above 1500ft. Mondays forecast for our area,
including the Pickett Fire is similar to today`s, with cooler
temperatures and improved RH recovery expected to set in on
Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the work week.
Expect breezy onshore winds each afternoon and evening, becoming
light and terrain driven during the overnight hours.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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