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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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741 FXUS66 KMTR 010957 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 257 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 255 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The warm up begins today and will ramp up on Tuesday with excessive heat across the interior through the upcoming weekend. Increased fire danger this week as well with temperatures well above normal and dry conditions through out the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 255 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The much anticipated warm up begins today with temperatures across the interior warming into the mid-to-upper 90`s with a few spots reaching the triple digits. Meanwhile, coastal areas will remain cool for another day with maximum temperatures warming into the 60`s and 70`s as a shallow marine layer remains in place. Elsewhere, look for high temperatures to be in the upper 70`s to lower 90`s just inland away from the coast. For tonight, expecting minimum temperatures to cool only into the mid 50`s to mid 60`s in most major urban areas with upper 60`s to mid 70`s in the hills and potentially lower 80`s in the peaks. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 255 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A more robust warming trend begins on Tuesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast. This looks to continue through much of the week if not into next week under the influence of the high pressure. No major changes to the Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning other than to extend it out into Saturday evening. Inland areas within the Warning, especially the higher terrain, will see limited overnight relief with temperatures remaining in the 70`s to 80`s while lower elevations cool more sufficiently. Heat Safety and Impacts: By now youre well aware that it is going to be extremely hot this week with well-above normal temperatures; now lets talk about the impacts of excessive heat and actions we can take to minimize those impacts: With extreme heat, and especially prolonged heat events, it is a marathon, and not a sprint. Our bodies, infrastructure, pets, and livestock will be under duress from heat over the span of days as opposed to just a day or two. Given that there is little overnight relief expected throughout this event, this is where it really becomes a marathon, and precautionary measures are necessitated in order to prevent adverse results such as heat exhaustion and stroke. This is not just for individuals sensitive to heat, but rather, the entire population. Heat for this duration and at these temperatures can be dangerous for everyone. Do your body a favor and if you can, suspend outdoors activities between the hours of 10am and 7pm on days where Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect. Remain in air conditioning if you have that available to you in your residence, or seek out air conditioned environments such as stores, movie theaters, restaurants, libraries, and cooling shelters. If you cannot access air conditioned environments, must be outside, work outdoors, or otherwise, there are other precautionary measures you can take to keep yourself and your loved ones safe (including pets!) during excessive heat. Take frequent breaks in the shade and ensure that you are drinking plenty of cool water, or other hydrating beverages such as sports drinks with electrolytes. Avoid DEHYDRATING drinks such as alcohol or caffeinated beverages. That aside, visiting your city public pool or a lake, river, or ocean can also help keep you cool, but dont forget the life jacket! If planning on swimming, stick to where there is a lifeguard, and know the ocean or river conditions before you get in. Although outside of our area, its worth repeating: rivers can run fast and cold with snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada mountains, and cold water shock can set in quickly, which can lead to loss of muscle control, and ultimately, drowning. Cold water shock can also set in for ocean- goers. Have fun at the water, but be smart, be safe, and Know Before You Go! Finally, if you do not have air conditioning or cannot access it, and also cannot access a body of water to stay cool: consider taking cold showers or baths, turn on those sprinklers or garden hose and have a fun time in your own makeshift water park, or lay a damp, cool towel across your head or body. Even just dipping your hands and feet in cool water can help to abate feelings of excessive heat. For pets and livestock, make sure they have access to shade structures or areas, and have clean water freely available to them at all times. They do not have the same resources or ability to notify of feeling heat-stressed as we do, so check in on them! If theyre permanently outdoors, consider giving them a quick rinse- down with the hose or set up misters, as the evaporation will help to keep them cool as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 IFR-LIFR ceilings will persist at the immediate coast and into the Monterey bay region through the night, with stratus retreating to the coast Monday morning. Model output continues to insist on a chance for stratus to flow over the San Mateo Peninsula and impact SFO and OAK, but confidence remains low to moderate. Will monitor the evolution of stratus in the region overnight. Breezy onshore winds will develop Monday afternoon, continuing into the evening. Marginal LLWS concerns continue during the overnight periods, especially at the coast and in the North Bay. Vicinity of SFO...Model output continues to insist on a chance for stratus to flow over the San Mateo Peninsula and impact the terminal tonight. The TAF remains VFR but confidence in that forecast is decreasing as the marine layer is deepening. Will monitor through the night. Breezy west-northwest winds will continue overnight, building again Monday afternoon as gusts reach 20-25 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR ceilings continue to impact the terminals through the night, clearing late Monday morning. Breezy northwest flow develops Monday afternoon, with stratus building back into the coastal regions, including MRY, on Monday evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes continue over the outer waters with occasional gale force gusts in the north. Winds become northerly this afternoon and gale force to near gale force gusts become more widespread over the coastal waters as high pressure builds. Winds will gradually weaken by mid to late week and become moderate to fresh. Significant wave heights generally build to 10-12 feet through mid-week before abating by the late week. Portions of the northern outer coastal waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through mid- week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 901 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for the East Bay Hills, Marin and Sonoma Coastal Ranges, and the North Bay interior mountains Monday evening through late Wednesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been added to the list of hazards along with the Excessive Heat Warning which remains in place for most of our interior locations, and a Heat Advisory for some locations closer to the shoreline that may still see minimal influence of the Marine Boundary Layer. Minimum RH values inland for the upcoming week and beyond will mostly be in the teens, with some single digit values in areas of higher elevation. Overnight RH recover will be poor to non-existent as the heat wave persists through the week, and potentially into next weekend. The hot and dry conditions continue to move ERCs into the 70-80 percent range. With the long holiday weekend, and the many outdoor activities expected, people need to be careful with any campfires, and fireworks should not be used. Any wildfire that ignites will have the potential for rapid spread. Lightning is the only natural ignition for wildfires and there are no thunderstorms in the forecast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502-503-515. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ502>504-506-510-512>518. Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ504. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ508- 528-529. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass/AC AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea