002
FXUS66 KMTR 161517
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
817 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Warming and drying trend through Saturday

- Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker
  waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches Saturday

- Dry cold frontal passage Sunday into Monday, offshore flow Tuesday
  into Wednesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The North Bay Valleys remain in a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM
this morning. There is also patchy to areas of dense fog across the
southern Salinas Valley, yet conditions are forecast to begin to
improve after 10 AM in these areas as temperatures begin to warm.
Otherwise, no updates anticipated this morning.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(Today through Saturday)

Surface high pressure building in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean
will create a northerly (drying) gradient across the state today.
This feature will continue to build into the Great Basin Friday into
Saturday. As it does so, a coastal trough develops off the
California Coast, which will generate light offshore flow. Sensible
weather wise, the next three days will be that of a warming and
drying trend with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(Sunday through Wednesday)

A dry cold frontal passage will do what it does best Sunday into
Monday, bring temperatures down and wind speeds up. This will return
temperatures to the below normal range. Winds are not expected to be
impactful, but gusty conditions can be expected through gaps,
passes, and across the higher terrain. Surface high pressure will
quickly build in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean in the cold front`s
wake, setting up shop over the Intermountain West. As it does so, a
coastal trough will develop off the California Coast, once again
setting the stage for offshore flow. Fire weather wise, while we
will be dealing with northerly flow and offshore flow which usually
would be concerning in October, it`ll generally be light and recent
widespread wetting rainfall has put a damper, albeit not an end, to
fire season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows patchy fog for some
valleys in the Bay Area and Central Coast. The North Bay has
succeeded and dropped to LIFR conditions due to visibility dropping
to a quarter mile or less at times. Expect LIFR VIS and associated
cigs to continue through the morning hours for these areas before
mixing out mid to late morning. There is some uncertainty as to
whether or not we`ll get a sunrise surprise with fog for non North
Bay sites. Opted to go with the optimistic forecast and keep sites
VFR for much of the period outside of the North Bay.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast
period. Onshore winds should pick late this afternoon and into the
early evening where winds may range from 10-15kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the
forecast period. Similar to other areas, there is some uncertainty
if we`ll be gifted with the opportunity for a sunrise surprise of
fog. Winds have been offshore tonight and guidance mainly favors VFR
conditions, thus no mention or hint of any lowered VIS or CIG at
this time. Some guidance hints at stratus trying to form after 0Z
this evening, opted to hint at the trend given most of the guidance
isn`t jumping on board.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

North to northwest breezes will become moderate to fresh later
today and into the evening and then hold through the end of this
week. A few gusts will be strong, favoring the outer waters and
south of Pigeon Point for the inner waters. A longer period
northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15
seconds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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