197
FXUS66 KMTR 302333
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
333 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
   substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.

 - Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.

 - Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
   of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
   our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(This evening through Monday)

Subtle day-to-day change to start the week with Tule fog present
again today across the delta and the interior East Bay, as well as
persistent stratus across parts of the North Bay. Expecting this
trend to improve going into Monday as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the NE. Many locations may start the day with
clouds and fog Monday morning, but anticipating a much better
afternoon with clearing taking place earlier in the day. There is
a chance of a light burst of offshore flow in the North Bay
overnight tonight with breezy winds up to 20-30 mph along the
interior high terrain. As such, high temps Monday are likely to
be a few degrees warmer than today for these North Bay locations
that have been in the soup for the last several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Quiet through the early week, but high likelihood of gusty
offshore winds in across the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
Mtns beginning early Wednesday morning. The stubborn high
amplitude ridge to our west promotes a deep inside slider system
digging into the Great Basin by midweek. The main impact from the
winds will be the drying that will occur due the dry, continental
nature of the airmass moving in behind the system, as well as a
bit of compressional heating due to downslope flow. Daytime
minimum RH in the 35 to 45% range can be anticipated across the
interior North Bay, East Bay Hills and interior, Eastern Santa
Clara, and the Santa Cruz Mtns. The RH range can also be expected
across the Santa Lucia and higher terrain of San Benito county,
but winds aren`t likely to be as gusty here. In the aforementioned
gusty areas, NE winds with gusts to 25-35 can be expected, with
localized gusts up to 45 along the higher ridgetops. Offshore
pressure gradient peaks late morning Wednesday, so we can
reasonably anticipate winds winding down into the afternoon hours
with a more neutral pressure gradient restored by the overnight
hours into Thursday morning.

Beyond the Wednesday system, we return to a quiet, benign pattern
into the weekend. By the weekend, there are some hints at things
finally getting more interesting for us as the Pacific jet starts
to ramp up over eastern Asia and the western Pacific. What this
means for us is beyond the 7 day outlook and still holds some
uncertainty. However, this looks like this the potential start to
our next "active" pattern through the middle of the month. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Generally a
persistence forecast on tap with fog/stratus slated to be advected
into Bay Area terminals with the help of offshore winds. Slant
range visibilities will be reduced due to haze.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. Moderate
confidence on sub-VFR conditions returning to the terminal tonight,
likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Once the afternoon sea breeze
subsides, offshore flow will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on
VFR prevailing through the TAF period at both terminals. SNS will be
the one to watch when onshore flow gives way to drainage flow and if
this is able to advect fog into the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 332 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure will remain located off of the Oregon coast
maintaining northerly breezes through the week. Northerly flow
will increase throughout the evening and gradually diminish into
Monday. Winds will be locally stronger over the outer waters and
coastal jets. Wave heights and swell energy increase early this
week with significant wave heights building to 8-12 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Tuesday evening with a
very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties.
Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the
vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...RGass

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