Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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297 FXUS66 KMTR 061150 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 450 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Impactful heat continues today. Widespread major-to-moderate HeatRisk, and all Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect until 11 PM tonight. Some relief still coming up through the beginning of this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 If you`ve ever seen the movie "Groundhog Day", you`ll understand what these last few night shifts have felt like. Currently seeing some weak returns on the radar, which are elevated showers associated with some lingering subtropical moisture above 10,000 feet. Once again, none of this is expected to make it to the ground as the air below is still very dry. One notable change to the short term forecast this morning are today`s forecast highs. We have bumped them up just a touch given that we are starting the day slightly warmer than we did yesterday. The issue with today is that there is the potential for a southerly marine surge to impact coastal areas, which would greatly limit the upper end of the high temps. This makes for a very difficult forecast for areas like Santa Cruz, the Peninsula coast, and San Francisco. Should the southerly surge make it into the Ocean Beach/Sunset District today, we could potentially be looking at a situation where there is as much as a 25 degree temperature difference from one side of San Francisco to the other. Regardless of what happens along the coast, we will still be dealing with impactful heat elsewhere with widespread moderate-to-major HeatRisk and high temperatures right around what they were yesterday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Through the rest of this week, expect temperatures to be on the downward trend starting Monday. We aren`t going to see a sharp drop off the cliff, but a steady decline into mid week. Ensemble guidance is depicting reasonably high confidence in a cooler pattern through this week, which is very welcome news after the week we`ve had. In terms of overall risk, there is still some risk for impacts from warm temperatures on Monday as highs will still be ranging from the lower-to-upper 90s inland and mid-60s to 80 along the coast. However, Monday would fall into the category of a "moderate" heat scenario under the HeatRisk category, decreasing from the extreme and major that we have had over the past seven days. There will be lingering impacts, but those should start to wane even more by Tuesday and Wednesday when we will see minor or even little-to-no HeatRisk across the region. By the end of the week, we have moderate confidence that high temps will be in the 80s inland and the 60s along the coast once again. For Saturday, there is a decent plume of moisture associated with the trough that could actually result in some measurable precip for the northern zones. It may only be in the form of drizzle, but there are a very select few ensemble members holding on the the chance of a light rain event for the North Bay on Saturday. Very slim chance, but we will certainly welcome the cooler temperatures and even drizzle if we can get it. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Expect light and variable winds overnight through the early afternoon. More moderate winds affect the region for the afternoon through the evening before tapering off into the night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light through the night and the morning before increasing to around 12 kts in the mid afternoon before becoming light again Sunday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light and variable winds through the early afternoon. Moderate winds return for the afternoon but weaken into the early night. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Light to moderate winds combined with moderate swell will result in relatively quiet seas through early Monday. Swells begin to elevate into the work week with breezy to gusty northwest winds building through Monday in the outer waters. These winds become widespread in the midweek. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 911 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Record high temperatures and years of occurrence at the long term climate stations October 6. Station Oct 6 Santa Rosa 102 1930 Kentfield 97 1930 Napa 96 1930 Richmond 91 1996 Livermore 100 2014 San Francisco 94 1992 SFO Airport 92 2023 Redwood City 99 1987 Half Moon Bay 87 1972 Oakland museum 93 2023 San Jose 95 2023 Salinas Airport 98 2023 King City 100 1996 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 502>504-508-510-512>518. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ506-509- 528>530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea