838
FXUS66 KMTR 072357
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
357 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1114 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

Weather calming down into the weekend. Mostly clear skies and
chilly temps on tap for the next several days. Freezing
temperatures possible for inland valleys. A potentially strong
storm system appears on the horizon beginning around the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1114 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

Lingering showers ongoing around portions of the Bay Area and
interior Central Coast will come to a gradual end today, giving
way to mostly clear skies for much of the region. Some lingering
cloudiness is likely for areas south of the SF Bay as a secondary
weak low moves ashore along with a lagging cold front aloft.
As skies clear tonight and a cold airmass settles in, Saturday
morning marks the first of several mornings with cold overnight
lows nearing the freezing mark for many. Black ice on roadways
may be a possibility Saturday morning for areas that do see temps
near freezing, especially in areas that received rainfall most
recently. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be in the 30s
region-wide, with the exception of locations situated along the
immediate coastline and the city of SF. However, these locations
will still be in the lower 40s (official forecast low at SF
tonight is 41). Locations most likely to see temps hit the
freezing mark will be inland valleys of the North Bay, the
southern Salinas Valley, and southern interior San Benito County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1114 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

Overnight lows cool even further from Sunday morning to Wednesday
morning. Several of the aforementioned inland locations could see
temps in the upper 20s, while portions of the southern Salinas
Valley will be cooler in the lower 20s. A few locations may even
approach record low temperatures into early next week, which is
tough to do in the Bay Area without an extremely dry airmass. In
fact, all GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble members advertise PWAT
values of 0.2" or less Sunday morning. The median for this time
of year is 0.51", and the minimum moving average is 0.18", so this
is an exceptionally dry airmass for this time of year.

Things change drastically as we roll into Wednesday. There is high
confidence that we will see a notable change in the form of
another potentially strong storm system. Ensemble guidance shows
high confidence in an enhanced Pacific jet and flow reversal in
the Arctic, which may enhance a deep trough progged to be in the
vicinity of the EPac by next Wednesday. This pattern is expected
to advect decent amounts of moisture across the West Coast over
what will potentially be several rounds of systems through the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

It`s VFR along with scattered showers mainly over the South Bay
Area per recent surface observations, satellite and KMUX radar
imagery. VFR tonight and Saturday with exception of light mixing
surface winds, recent rain moistened boundary layer and clearing
vicinity KSTS may result in fog /LIFR-IFR/ by late evening and
overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West to northwest wind near 15 knots
decreasing to around 10 knots tonight and Saturday morning. West
to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots Saturday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. West to northwest winds 10 to 15
knots decreasing and becoming light and variable then locally east
to southeast cold air drainage winds around 5 knots tonight and
Saturday morning. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots redeveloping
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

Moderate breezes will build with widespread strong northerly gusts
expected Friday evening through Tuesday. Significant wave heights
will remain in the moderate to rough realm, especially mid-work
week. Next chance for rain will return by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 111 AM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

Creek flooding is still ongoing in central Sonoma County. Green
Valley Creek at Martinelli Road has just entered moderate flood
stage and continues to slowly rise. Mark West Creek near Mirabel
Heights and Colgan Creek near Sebastopol are both in minor flood
stage and receding. A flood advisory remains in effect through
midnight.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ502>504-508-
     510-512-513-515-528>530.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ506-514-
     516>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Gass

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