868
FXUS66 KMTR 101612
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
912 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Moderate HeatRisk continues through Monday for portions of North,
   East, and South Bay counties and interior Monterey and San Benito
   counties.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns persist given the warm and dry
   conditions, with breezy winds each afternoon and evening.

 - Pattern change Tuesday, with cooler weather and coastal drizzle
   returning to the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Satellite imagery shows stratus mixing out across the coastal
valleys, with high-level smoke from the Gifford Fire drifting
northward through the Central Coast and the Bay Area. Patchy dense
fog was reported earlier this morning, with more recent reports
showing conditions improving across the region. Otherwise, the
forecast remains unchanged with hot and dry conditions being the
main area of focus for the next couple of days.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025
(Today and tonight)

Starting another forecast discussion, with you guessed it, satellite
observation! The picture from space shows the stratus has spread
substantially farther inland, infiltrating portions of the North,
East, and South Bay regions and a good portion of the Central Coast.
Stratus will continue to snake it`s way into the region this morning,
before quickly retreating back to the coast after sunrise. It`s
another, wash, rinse, repeat forecast! Sunny skies and summer heat
returns for interior locations, as temperatures rise into the low
90s to near 103. If you plan on being outdoors in this heat, whether
for work or for play, please consider taking some heat safety
actions. Consider wearing sunscreen, taking breaks, staying
hydrated, reducing your time outdoors, or wearing lighter and/or
looser fitted clothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Warmer inland weather continues through Monday, with a patter change
beginning on Tuesday. Upper level ridging breaks down as an upper
level trough moves into the PacNW. Widespread cooling is expected by
Wednesday and will continue through Friday, moderating some by the
weekend. Troughing will lead to widespread stratus and drizzle
during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with a marine
layer of about 1,300 feet. With the exception of HAF, high
confidence in widespread VFR this afternoon with low stratus
sticking close to the coast. Little change in the overall pattern
will yield similar conditions tonight as what is currently underway.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow with low stratus
quickly closing in on the terminal. High confidence in VFR by the
afternoon with moderate (40%) confidence on a sub-VFR ceiling
likely on the cusp of MVFR/IFR returning to the terminal tonight.
Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with northerly flow at MRY
and IFR and calm at SNS. VFR will be achieved briefly this afternoon
with moderate (60%) confidence on ceilings on the cusp of
LIFR/IFR returning to both terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 906 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate seas will prevail through
Tuesday with diurnally driven afternoon sea breeze gusts up to 25
knots through the Delta. Winds increase and seas build Wednesday
with fresh to strong northwesterly breezes and rough seas on tap
for the outer waters and coastal jet regions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 906 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Not much change to the forecast for the next couple of days, with
hot and dry conditions persisting through Monday and breezy and
gusty onshore winds each afternoon and evening, both leading to
curing fuels and the possibility of rapidly spreading fires should
one start. Poor overnight humidity recoveries in the higher
terrain will contribute to the fire weather threats. As an upper
level ridge breaks down, the gusty afternoon winds will linger,
possible through the middle of the upcoming work week. However,
the cooling temperatures and deepening marine layer will help to
mitigate fire weather threats, and by the end of the work week a
trough should bring temperatures below seasonal averages across
the region.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Canepa

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