471
FXUS65 KMSO 051903
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
103 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- The KMSX Radar (Missoula, MT local weather radar) will remain
  offline due to scheduled maintenance through the first week of
  August.

- A break in the rain through Wednesday will be followed by a
  cool, showery Thursday/Friday.

- A pattern change to northwest flow and a building ridge will
  occur over the weekend.

Drier air has settled in with brief ridging into Wednesday. A few
showers may occur this afternoon, mainly along the Canadian
border and Divide but a pleasant, dry day overall.

Southwest flow on Wednesday imports mid level moisture but with limited
lift and instability, mostly virga is expected. Westerly winds do
pick up in the afternoon ahead of weak cold front on Wednesday
night. Showers gradually increase on Wednesday night.

A well defined closed low wobbles through the Northern Rockies
Thursday into Friday morning bringing several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. On Thursday afternoon, instability and shear
profiles will allow for a few strong storms containing gusty
outflow winds and hail. Locally heavy rain is also a concern but
decent storm movement should minimize any debris flow or flooding
concerns. High temperatures will also drop to about 15 degrees
below normal. Under the track of the mid-level low, snow levels
could fall as low as 8000 feet, perhaps leaving a few higher
peaks with a dusting of new snow by Friday morning.

Ridging off the West Coast leads to northwest flow this weekend
into early next week. This pattern will allow daytime temperatures
to return to seasonably warm levels. There will be enough moisture
for a few daily showers and thunderstorms but overall a dry setup.
More troughing or southwest flow likely (ensemble clusters show a
70% probability) late next week August 14-15th with scattered
showers/cooler temperatures.



&&

.AVIATION... VFR weather conditions expected through Wednesday at
all terminals across the region. A few high cirrus and occasional
afternoon fair-weather cumulus building over terrain. Ridgetop
winds increasing out of the southwest to 15-25 knots through
Wednesday. Surface gusts up to 30 mph possible especially near
KSMN and KBTM Wednesday afternoon. Convection chances slowly
increasing late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$