848
FXUS65 KMSO 031951
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
151 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain
   continue this afternoon through Friday

-  A warming trend starts early this week that will culminate in
   another extended period of hot, dry weather.

Satellite and radar are showing scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms developing across Lemhi county into southwest
Montana. These storms will be capable of producing erratic winds
with gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall. The
storms will move off to the east during the evening hours.

A small low pressure system will be moving through the Northern
Rockies Friday into Saturday. A plume of showers along with
embedded thunderstorms is expected to move from the south to the
north during the morning and early afternoon hours. A second pulse
of convection with even stronger storms is expected to develop
during the afternoon over Lemhi county into southwest Montana.
These storms will be capable of producing another round of strong
erratic winds along with heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could
cause localized flooding concerns especially over flood prone
basins and recent burn scars.

As the low moves off to the east on Saturday, wrap around
precipitation will affect areas along the Continental Divide
especially around Glacier National Park. While the remainder of
the Northern Rockies experience scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be
significantly cooler as afternoon readings appear to be around 5
degrees below seasonal averages.

A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies
Sunday through the middle part of next week causing a warming and
drying trend. Temperatures once again appear to warm to around 10
degrees above normal by Tuesday.

The extended models are showing a weak disturbance flattening the
ridge by the latter part of the week. The timing and strength of
this disturbance is still uncertain, but expect seasonal
temperatures and increased westerly winds. This disturbance could
also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the
Northern Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
over Lemhi county into southwest Montana this afternoon into the
evening affecting KSMN and KBTM. The convection appears to
diminish at both terminals by 04/02z. These storms will be capable
of wind gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall.
A plume of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move
northward by Friday morning affecting KSMN by 04/14z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$