343
FXUS65 KMSO 010827
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
227 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A series of upper-level troughs within northwesterly flow will
maintain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
between 1:00-3:00 PM MDT, with activity continuing into the
evening hours. The focus for storm development will be across
Lincoln, Flathead, and Lake Counties in northwest Montana, as well
as southwest Montana and Lemhi County, ID, where thunderstorm
probabilities peak at 40-60%. Thunderstorm chances elsewhere will
range from 15% to 25%. These storms will form quickly and
dissipate rapidly, with lightning and brief heavy rain posing
primary threats.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm activity will
shift into northwest Montana and along the divide, with western
Montana and central Idaho remaining dry. West-northwest gusts of
15-25 mph are expected in valley areas.

The weather pattern will change heading into Independence Day and
the following weekend. Ensemble guidance indicates a
strengthening consensus for a broad ridge of high pressure
amplifying along the OR/WA coast into British Columbia. The
Northern Rockies will be on the eastern periphery of this ridge,
leading to an extended period of warm and dry weather. Heat will
spread into the lower elevations of Idaho and Clearwater Counties,
with valley temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. From
July 8 to July 10, ensemble means suggest the ridge axis will
move inland across the Northern Rockies, increasing confidence for
above-normal temperatures and potential heat impacts. Now is a
good time to ensure you have reliable ways to avoid or mitigate
heat-related health risks. /Lukinbeal

&&

.AVIATION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across the Northern Rockies region today. Showers and storms are
likely to start between 01/1800-2000Z, with the highest
probabilities (40-60%) for thunderstorms across northwest Montana,
southwest Montana, and Lemhi County, Idaho. West-northwest winds
will pick up this afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 20-25
knots across western Montana. /Lukinbeal

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$