205
FXUS65 KMSO 091848
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1248 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty winds tonight, especially northwest Montana

- Active Pacific storm cycle next week, with periods of mountain
  snow and valley wintry mix.

Pleasant conditions continue under high pressure this afternoon as
high temperatures are expected about 10 degrees above normal.
South- southwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening,
with gusts of 15-25 mph in valleys and 30-50 mph across the higher
terrain, especially in northwest Montana, as the gradient
tightens with an approaching Pacific cold front. As the cold front
presses through tonight and Monday morning, high resolution
guidance suggests wind gusts of 35-45 mph across northwest
Montana valleys, slightly lower for other valleys of western
Montana. Given these gusts and saturated ground conditions from
recent snow melt, an elevated risk exists for localized tree
damage. Gusts over 60 mph will impact mountain areas.

Snow showers will also accompany the front with accumulations of
2-5 inches for the passes along the ID/MT border, as snow levels
will be near 4000 feet. Travelers should be aware of brief road
accumulations and reduced visibility in these showers. Showers
gradually diminish on Monday as the front washes out with a return
to seasonable temperatures.

An active pattern remains on track for Wednesday through next
weekend. After a few showers on Tuesday, southwest flow brings in
widespread precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday but snow
levels remain above valley floors (4000-5000 feet). The primary
minor impact through Thursday morning will be occasional snow on
pass level roads mainly during the overnight/morning periods.
Snow levels drop to valley floors Thursday night into Friday but
snow will be focused on the terrain with most likely forecast
amounts of 3-6 inches on the favored passes. Overall, models have
trended away from an organized system Thursday night into Friday
but the risk for valley snow accumulations is still highest along
the Divide, including the Glacier Park region, Seeley-Swan Valley,
and Butte/Blackfoot region, where valleys have a >50% chance for
1 inch or more. Confidence for widespread valley snow (>1 inch)
decreases across the US-93 corridor, where the Flathead, Mission,
Missoula, Bitterroot, and Salmon valleys have probabilities near
15-25%.

Around 80% of ensembles support another trough over the western
U.S. later next weekend with more mountain snowfall, especially
along the ID/MT border and in northwest Montana.



&&

.AVIATION...A mix of sun and clouds will be common for the
Northern Rockies the rest of this afternoon with VFR conditions.
Southwesterly winds of 15-25 kts will develop this afternoon. A
cold front will lead to a period of showers (mainly on the
terrain) and mountain obscurations tonight into Monday morning.
Gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage, with the strongest
gusts (30-40 kts) expected across northwest Montana valleys. Low
level wind shear will be a concern for valley locations ahead of
the front as some locations decouple. Mountain obscurations may
linger on Monday as the front washes out over west-central Montana
but showers will gradually dissipate.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Monday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower
     Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$