624
FXUS65 KMSO 280905
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
205 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through
   much of Sunday. Ponding continues from snowmelt.

-  Next round of light wintry precipitation early next week.

High pressure remains firmly in place across western Montana and
north-central Idaho, and is expected to persist through most the
weekend. Mild days and cool nights will support a steady, gradual
snowmelt in the valleys. However, some icy spots may develop
overnight and early morning where meltwater refreezes. Valley fog
will continue to form each morning, primarily from Missoula
northward into northwest Montana and north-central Idaho.

A shift in the weather pattern is expected during the latter half
of Sunday as an approaching system brings increasing cloud cover
and light snow showers to the higher elevations. Precipitation
will become more widespread Monday into Tuesday. Uncertainty
remains regarding the systems track, with 55% of the model runs
favoring a more southerly path (resulting in lighter
precipitation) and 35% showing a more northern trajectory
(producing heavier amounts).

Snow levels will begin to drop, particularly by Tuesday morning,
allowing for potential light snow accumulations in valleys
locations, especially in northwest Montana, where colder air will
be more prevalent. While significant winter storms impacts are
not expected, mountain pass travel could become winter-like early
next week.

The rest of next week looks unsettled, with periods of
precipitation and temperatures near to slightly below normal.
Some models suggest colder air could push across the Continental
Divide late next week, but confidence in this scenario remains
low.

&&

.AVIATION...The ridge of high pressure over western Montana and
north-central Idaho will persist into the weekend. Mid and high-
level clouds continue to stream through the ridge, particularly
across northwest MOntana. This cloud cover is substantial enough
to limit fog formation this morning; however, a period of reduced
ceilings and visibility is still expected at KMSO through
approximately 28/1500z. Valley fog will remain a possibility each
morning through Sunday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$