Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
172 FXUS65 KMSO 301946 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 146 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...5 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA...LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... The biggest weather impact in the near term will be occurrence of thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies throughout the remainder of today. Southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho have a 5 percent probability of damaging hail (greater than 1 inch diameter) and damaging wind (60 mph or greater) through sunset this evening. Otherwise through Independence Day, cool, showery, and breezy conditions will remain in place across the Northern Rockies. Daytime temperatures will be running generally 5-10 degrees below the seasonal average through Thursday. The next most significant weather impact is anticipated Friday through the weekend, when 60-70 percent of weather models and their ensembles suggest a very warm ridge of high pressure moving over the Northern Rockies. Population centers across the region are projected to warm 10-20 degrees above the seasonal average (90-105F). Now would be a good time to ensure that you have a reliable way to avoid or mitigate the heat. Water, shade, and air circulation are crucial for avoiding adverse health effects from heat. && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms will be present across the Northern Rockies air space through 01/0600Z. There is a roughly 50 percent probability of lightning across northwest/southwest Montana and over Lemhi County in central Idaho during this time. Also, there is a 5 percent probability of large hail and thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 50 knots for southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho (including KBTM and KSMN). Terrain obscurations from low ceilings will be common during this time as well. Ceilings will steadily rise and obscurations lessen significantly after 01/0600Z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$