585
FXUS64 KMRX 111113
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
713 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 709 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Fall-like, cool temperatures and dry weather expected through
  this weekend into next week. A slight warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

In the upper levels, a trough is lingering over the Southeast as a
cut-off low moves into the Northeast. A ridge extends from Texas to
the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure over the Northeast is
moving out quickly as a low starts to develop off the Southeast
Coast. This low will be slow moving making its way off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast by Sunday and Monday. For the most part, our region
will remain dry on the backside of the East Coast system with
northwesterly flow in the upper levels. There is a low chance for
light rain in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia on Sunday
afternoon as the system is closest but the chances are low around 20
percent. The ridge will finally build into the Tennessee Valley by
Monday and Tuesday. Ridging and high pressure will continue through
mid and likely late next week.

Other than the low possibility of showers Sunday afternoon, dry
weather is expected this weekend through next week. A gradual
warming trend is expected early next week as the ridge builds into
the region but temps will still be pleasant with highs mainly in the
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Patchy fog this morning, mainly along the Plateau and north into
Kentucky, where river fog is prevalent now. Low clouds will
scatter with sunrise, and forecast is for another day of VFR and
dry conditions, with light northerly winds persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  74  50  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  48  73  51 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington