448
FXUS64 KMRX 121730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected through the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A high amplitude ridge in the mid/upper levels extending from TX
toward the Great Lakes, and a trough off the Atlantic coast, will
continue to control the pattern across the eastern Conus. This will
result in dry weather for East TN, which will be located in a deep
north to northwest flow aloft all week. Some cloud cover is
bleeding into our extreme NE sections on the outer fringes of the
coastal low, but this will have little impact and should decrease
tonight as the low pulls away tomorrow. The showers currently seen
on radar across VA and NC will remain well to our east.

Temperatures through this forecast period will be slightly above
normal for this time of year and steady through the first half of
the week, with highs each afternoon in the 70s to lower 80s, and
lows each morning in the upper 40s and 50s. On Thursday,
temperatures may drop slightly as a trough digs southward off the
Atlantic coast and a back door cold front pushes southward along
the Appalachians. However, this will be short-lived as the ridge
aloft progresses east of the mountains and puts us in a warmer SW
flow pattern next weekend. This may allow for some increasing
moisture and rain chances next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

With little to no meaningful pattern change, a repeat of this
morning is expected, with dense fog developing at TRI near sunrise.
The tricky part will be timing the drop and the lift, but this TAF
issuance will follow this morning`s fog timing.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  73  48  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS