581
FXUS64 KMRX 010657
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler and drier air moving in for the period.

Discussion:

Cooler and drier air will be moving in today behind the cold front
as surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes
region slides southeast and builds into our area. We will see plenty
of sunshine today with lower humidity and high temperatures
generally near to several degrees below normal. Relative humidity
values will dip into the 30s in most locations this afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will be below seasonal normals, along
with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry to mostly dry conditions through Wednesday, with increasing
chances of diurnal showers and storms Thursday into the weekend.

2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the week, humidity
returns late week.

Discussion:

The story of this summer continues with the strong 594 dm ridge
parked over the southeast for much of this week, shifting towards
the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend as a series of upper shortwaves
push down across the Northern US. Humidity takes a bit to fully
return to the area, with weak southerly flow gradually increasing
dewpoints from a manageable Tuesday to a more uncomfortable
Thursday. Looking at GFS and Euro ensemble probabilities of rain,
still think NBM is overdoing PoPs on Wednesday and likely again on
Thursday, so lowered percentages to reflect the global ensembles. A
subsidence inversion aloft will act to stymie any fledgling
updrafts, similar to conditions experienced already this summer
under similar circumstances.

As we go from Friday into the weekend, diurnal chances for showers
and thunderstorms look to improve, with upper level thermodynamics
and greater surface moisture more favorable for thunderstorm
development. The upper level trough and shortwaves over the northern
US look to push a frontal boundary down into the wider MidSouth
region, which may provide additional support for convective
development. With the approach of the front at the very end of the
period, it is not yet clear if the front will push through or if it
gets washed out around Tennessee. Heat indices each afternoon
Thursday through Saturday may flirt with heat advisory criteria in
the southern Tennessee valley, dependent in part on how strong
surface moisture becomes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Some low clouds and fog to start at TRI, with IFR/LIFR conditions
expected for the first few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be from
the north and northeast less than 10kts but will be above 10kts
and gusty at times at CHA during the day. Winds will become light
all sites tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  68  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  64  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  55  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...