Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
121 FXUS64 KMRX 131739 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 139 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected this week. - Rain chances will return over the weekend with a system approaching from the west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Not much has changed with the expected pattern and the forecast for this week, as we will remain in a dry N-NW flow through much of the week as a high amplitude ridge will be over the Plains and MS Valley. But things could get interesting early next week. Tonight, fog is expected to develop in sheltered valleys and near bodies of water with the clear/calm conditions. Another couple daysof slightly above normal temperatures can be expected tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures could be a little cooler and dewpoints a little lower on Thursday and Friday, mainly in NE sections for morning lows, as high pressure over Ontario today drops southward to the Mid Atlantic region by Friday morning. The pattern shifts over the weekend as the surface high moves to the NC/SC coast and the mid/upper ridge shifts east of the Appalachians. This will bring a warmer and more moist air mass to the region starting Saturday, with rain chances rising on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The ECMWF`s depiction of a deep, negatively tilted trough and coupled jet structure grabs our attention for the potential for thunderstorms and strong/severe storms. Will keep an eye on this in the coming days, as it will be dependent on how much low level moisture and instability can be drawn from the Gulf ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Fog at TRI is again the main concern for the TAFs today. This morning, cloud cover prevented fog development, but that is not expected to be present tonight. So the TRI TAF will carry a TEMPO for LIFR visibility for a few hours toward sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS