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FXUS64 KMRX 011724 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
124 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Minor adjustements will be made to PoP/Wx grids for today. A weak
surface trough is crossing the area today, trailing the departing
low over the central Appalachians. Scattered showers are expected
this afternoon in northern sections, with isolated coverage south
and central, similar to what we saw yesterday. We are seeing more
breaks in the cloud today, especially in southern sections, which
will allow temps to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s. With this
clearing, it appears we will have a good setup for widespread
dense fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Patchy fog expected this morning.

1. Isolated showers expected again this afternoon/evening.

Discussion:

Currently fog is trying to develop across the southern Appalachian
region early this morning, but it is being impeded by low/mid level
clouds streaming into the area from the southwest. If we get some
breaks in the clouds or the axis of clouds shifts further to the
east we could see dense fog quickly forming in the eastern Tennesee
Valley. Clouds will also help to keep overnight temperatures fairly
mild and similar to what we experienced yesterday morning.

Quickly after sunrise expect any fog out there to burn off, and
another day of the sun trying to poke through the cloud deck in our
region. Expect we should see more sun today than yesterday for most
people and the additional sunshine will help drive up temperatures
around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly across the central
and southern valley where more sun is expected. In northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia we`ll likely see more cloud
coverage and afternoon temperatures will remain close to yesterdays
highs. Once again expect to see another round of isolated showers
during the hottest parts of the afternoon, but any showers are
expected to be light and not last very long.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather with seasonal temperatures, and slow warming trend
for Wednesday and Thursday.

2. A weak front will be passing through later Friday with only light
rainfall amounts.

3. Another cold front approaching from the northwest Sunday night
into Monday. May actually bring cool, fall weather early next week!

Discussion:

On Wednesday and Thursday, a ridge will be over the Southeast and
high pressure will be over the region bringing dry weather and
slightly above normal temps with highs in the lower 80s. By Friday,
the ridge breaks down and a weak trough dips down from the north. A
weak cold front will move through bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening on Friday. POPs
are fairly low with this weak system. Another cold front will move
through the region Sunday or Sunday night. POPs are low with this
system too. This system may bring northwesterly flow and actual fall
temperatures behind it early next week.

Rainfall amounts with these two systems will be light. The official
rain total forecast through early next week has amounts near zero.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Scattered to broken clouds at the VFR/MVFR margins will be around
the area through the afternoon. Scattered showers may be in the
TRI area, so will mention a PROB30 there. Tonight, clouds are
expected to clear enough to allow for fog development, with LIFR
to VLIFR conditions expected at TYS and TRI. A light downslope
wind may prevent fog at CHA. Fog and low clouds will lift and
scatter after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  64  82  61 /  20  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  64  80  60 /  20  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  63  80  58 /  20  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  62  77  58 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...DGS