987
FXUS64 KMRX 300649
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
249 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Fog may be an issue for the morning commute this morning,
mainly near Chattanooga.

2. Isolated to scattered showers are expected today, mainly in
the afternoon as the remnant low from Helene is slow to move out.

3. Some decreasing cloud cover today will bring warmer
temperatures in the 70s.

Discussion:

Fog may be an issue for the morning commute this morning as a
break in the clouds is trying to move in from the west. There is
some dense fog near Huntsville where the higher clouds cleared
out. The best chance for fog will be the westernmost counties and
Chattanooga area. I am not confident enough for a Dense Fog
Advisory at this time but one may be needed by morning. Farther
east cloud cover will likely prevent dense fog formation.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with the best
chances in the afternoon hours as the remnant low from Helene is
slow to move out of Eastern Kentucky. Rain chances will be much
lower tonight as the low finally gets farther away. The best
coverage for light showers will be in Southwest Virginia and
Northeast Tennessee where ongoing flooding issues remain but these
light showers will be off and on and rain amounts will be fairly
low at less than half an inch. Some locations will get no rain due
to the spotty nature of the showers.

Temps will be warmer today with highs in the 70s as cloud cover
decreases this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather with seasonal temperatures, and slow warming trend
for most of the work week

2. Front will move through over the weekend.

3. Still uncertainty with potential tropical system trying to move
north through the Gulf of Mexico.

Discussion:

Any lingering drizzle will be pulling out of the area by Tuesday
night, finally leading to much sunnier skies for the second half of
the work week. Zonal flow to weak ridging will lead to a gradual
warming each day as we head into the weekend. Warmest day is
expected to be Friday with temperatures that day climbing around 5
degrees above normal.

Once we get into the weekend there will be a few synoptic scale
systems at play which may influence the weather across the southern
Appalachian region. The most consistent feature in the models has
been an incoming front from the northwest being forced through by a
fast moving trough zipping through the northern states. Several
models have this system bringing FROPA on Saturday which would cool
temperatures off to a much more fall like range. The other, but less
certain, feature will be a tropical system coming up from the Gulf
of Mexico trying to move northward into the southeast United States.
Previous runs of many of the deterministic models brought the
remnants of the system up into the Appalachians...However the latest
trend has to be stronger with the cold front which forces the system
off to the Atlantic very quickly after moving into Florida.
Hopefully this remains true and keeps the rainfall away from the
areas most heavily impacted by Helene, but with some wide model
solutions over the past several days, forecast certainty remains
low. Will be worth keeping an eye on this system over the next
several days to see if the eastward turn earlier remains the most
likely scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Fog will be possible this morning along with IFR CIGs. Confidence
is medium. Otherwise, conditions will be MVFR through early
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with
the best chances in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  62  82  62 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  63  79  63 /  30  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  62  79  61 /  30  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  60  76  61 /  70  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD